Hsu Chia-Hui, Yang Chih-Hsuan, Perez Andres M
Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States.
Front Vet Sci. 2024 Jun 25;11:1425394. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1425394. eCollection 2024.
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a reportable disease of swine that causes far-reaching losses to affected countries and regions. Early detection is critically important to contain and mitigate the impact of ASF outbreaks, for which timely available data is essential. This research examines the potential use of Google Trends data as an early indicator of ASF outbreaks in Southeast Asia, focusing on the three largest swine producing countries, namely, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand. Cross-correlation and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence indicators were used to evaluate the association between Google search trends and the number of ASF outbreaks reported. Our analysis indicate strong and moderate correlations between Google search trends and number of ASF outbreaks reported in Vietnam and the Philippines, respectively. In contrast, Thailand, the country of this group in which outbreaks were reported last, exhibits the weakest correlation (KL = 2.64), highlighting variations in public awareness and disease dynamics. These findings suggest that Google search trends are valuable for early detection of ASF. As the disease becomes endemic, integrating trends with other epidemiological data may support the design and implementation of surveillance strategies for transboundary animal diseases in Southeast Asia.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是一种猪类应报告疾病，会给受影响的国家和地区造成深远损失。早期检测对于控制和减轻ASF疫情的影响至关重要，而及时获取可用数据是必不可少的。本研究探讨了谷歌趋势数据作为东南亚ASF疫情早期指标的潜在用途，重点关注三个最大的生猪生产国，即越南、菲律宾和泰国。使用交叉相关性和库尔贝克-莱布勒（KL）散度指标来评估谷歌搜索趋势与报告的ASF疫情数量之间的关联。我们的分析表明，谷歌搜索趋势与越南和菲律宾报告的ASF疫情数量之间分别存在强相关性和中等相关性。相比之下，该组中最后报告疫情的泰国表现出最弱的相关性（KL = 2.64），凸显了公众意识和疾病动态的差异。这些发现表明，谷歌搜索趋势对于ASF的早期检测具有重要价值。随着该疾病成为地方病，将趋势与其他流行病学数据相结合可能有助于支持东南亚跨界动物疾病监测策略的设计和实施。
