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e3SIM:用于基因组流行病学的流行病学-生态-进化模拟框架

e3SIM: epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulation framework for genomic epidemiology.

作者信息

Xu Peiyu, Liang Shenni, Hahn Andrew, Zhao Vivian, Lo Wai Tung 'Jack', Haller Benjamin C, Sobkowiak Benjamin, Chitwood Melanie H, Colijn Caroline, Cohen Ted, Rhee Kyu Y, Messer Philipp W, Wells Martin T, Clark Andrew G, Kim Jaehee

机构信息

Department of Molecular Biology & Genetics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.

Department of Computational Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.

出版信息

bioRxiv. 2024 Jul 2:2024.06.29.601123. doi: 10.1101/2024.06.29.601123.

Abstract

Infectious disease dynamics are driven by the complex interplay of epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary processes. Accurately modeling these interactions is crucial for understanding pathogen spread and informing public health strategies. However, existing simulators often fail to capture the dynamic interplay between these processes, resulting in oversimplified models that do not fully reflect real-world complexities in which the pathogen's genetic evolution dynamically influences disease transmission. We introduce the epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulator (e3SIM), an open-source framework that concurrently models the transmission dynamics and molecular evolution of pathogens within a host population while integrating environmental factors. Using an agent-based, discrete-generation, forward-in-time approach, e3SIM incorporates compartmental models, host-population contact networks, and quantitative-trait models for pathogens. This integration allows for realistic simulations of disease spread and pathogen evolution. Key features include a modular and scalable design, flexibility in modeling various epidemiological and population-genetic complexities, incorporation of time-varying environmental factors, and a user-friendly graphical interface. We demonstrate e3SIM's capabilities through simulations of realistic outbreak scenarios with SARS-CoV-2 and , illustrating its flexibility for studying the genomic epidemiology of diverse pathogen types.

摘要

传染病动态受到流行病学、生态学和进化过程之间复杂相互作用的驱动。准确模拟这些相互作用对于理解病原体传播和为公共卫生策略提供信息至关重要。然而,现有的模拟器往往无法捕捉这些过程之间的动态相互作用,导致模型过于简化,无法充分反映现实世界的复杂性,在现实世界中,病原体的基因进化会动态影响疾病传播。我们引入了流行病学 - 生态学 - 进化模拟器(e3SIM),这是一个开源框架,它在整合环境因素的同时,对宿主群体中病原体的传播动态和分子进化进行并发建模。使用基于主体的、离散世代的、向前时间推进的方法,e3SIM纳入了病原体的 compartmental 模型、宿主群体接触网络和数量性状模型。这种整合允许对疾病传播和病原体进化进行逼真的模拟。关键特性包括模块化和可扩展设计、在模拟各种流行病学和群体遗传学复杂性方面的灵活性、纳入随时间变化的环境因素以及用户友好的图形界面。我们通过对 SARS-CoV-2 和[此处原文缺失部分内容]的现实爆发情景进行模拟来展示 e3SIM 的能力,说明其在研究不同病原体类型的基因组流行病学方面的灵活性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a2ab/11244936/44c197cafd1c/nihpp-2024.06.29.601123v1-f0001.jpg

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