Kephart Josiah L, Bilal Usama, Gouveia Nelson, Sarmiento Olga Lucia, Shingara Emily, Moreno Karla Rangel, Bakhtsiyarava Maryia, Rodriguez Juan Pablo, Ayala Salvador, Carrasco-Escobar Gabriel, Diez Roux Ana V
Urban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA.
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA.
medRxiv. 2024 Jul 3:2024.07.02.24309839. doi: 10.1101/2024.07.02.24309839.
Climate change is expected to greatly increase exposure to flooding, particularly in urban populations in low- and middle-income countries. We examined within-city social disparities in exposure to flooding in 276 Latin American cities and associated features of the neighborhood urban environment.
We used a spatially granular dataset of historical flood events from 2000 to 2018 to describe neighborhood flooding within cities across eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, and Panama). We estimated the percentage of the population living in flooded neighborhoods, described social disparities in flooding based on neighborhood educational attainment, and compared the magnitude of disparities across and within cities. We used multilevel models to examine how city- and neighborhood-level factors are related to neighborhood flooding.
We examined 44,698 neighborhoods in 276 cities from eight countries with a total of 223 million residents and 117 distinct flood events from 2000-2018. One in four residents in neighborhoods in the lowest education quintile lived in neighborhoods with flooding, compared to one in 20 residents of the highest neighborhood education quintile. Greater neighborhood flooding was associated with lower neighborhood-level educational attainment and with neighborhoods that were coastal, less dense (population or intersection), further from the city center, greener, and had steeper slopes. There was no association between city-level educational attainment and flooding.
There are large social disparities in neighborhood flooding within Latin American cities. Residents of areas with lower education attainment face substantially higher risks of flooding. Policymakers must prioritize flood adaptation and recovery efforts in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic position.
预计气候变化将大幅增加遭受洪水的风险，尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家的城市人口中。我们研究了拉丁美洲276个城市内遭受洪水影响的社会差异以及城市邻里环境的相关特征。
我们使用了一个空间粒度的2000年至2018年历史洪水事件数据集，来描述八个拉丁美洲国家（阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、墨西哥和巴拿马）城市内的邻里洪水情况。我们估计了居住在洪水泛滥社区的人口百分比，根据邻里教育程度描述了洪水方面的社会差异，并比较了不同城市之间和城市内部差异的程度。我们使用多层次模型来研究城市和邻里层面的因素与邻里洪水的关系。
我们研究了来自八个国家276个城市的44,698个社区，这些社区共有2.23亿居民，以及2000 - 2018年期间117次不同的洪水事件。教育程度最低的五分之一社区中有四分之一的居民生活在遭受洪水的社区，而邻里教育程度最高的五分之一社区中只有二十分之一的居民生活在这样的社区。更大程度的邻里洪水与邻里层面较低的教育程度以及沿海、人口密度较低（人口或交叉路口）、距离市中心较远、绿化较好且坡度较陡的社区相关。城市层面的教育程度与洪水之间没有关联。
拉丁美洲城市内邻里洪水存在巨大的社会差异。教育程度较低地区的居民面临洪水的风险要高得多。政策制定者必须将社会经济地位较低社区的洪水适应和恢复工作作为优先事项。
