DeBell Matthew, Krosnick Jon A, Gera Katie, Yeager David S, McDonald Michael P
Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Sociol Methods Res. 2020 Nov;49(4):1133-1162. doi: 10.1177/0049124118769085. Epub 2018 May 6.
Postelection surveys regularly overestimate voter turnout by 10 points or more. This article provides the first comprehensive documentation of the turnout gap in three major ongoing surveys (the General Social Survey, Current Population Survey, and American National Election Studies), evaluates explanations for it, interprets its significance, and suggests means to continue evaluating and improving survey measurements of turnout. Accuracy was greater in face-to-face than telephone interviews, consistent with the notion that the former mode engages more respondent effort with less social desirability bias. Accuracy was greater when respondents were asked about the most recent election, consistent with the hypothesis that forgetting creates errors. Question wordings designed to minimize source confusion and social desirability bias improved accuracy. Rates of reported turnout were lower with proxy reports than with self-reports, which may suggest greater accuracy of proxy reports. People who do not vote are less likely to participate in surveys than voters are.
选举后的调查经常将选民投票率高估10个百分点或更多。本文首次全面记录了三项主要正在进行的调查（综合社会调查、当前人口调查和美国全国选举研究）中的投票率差距，评估了对此的解释，解读了其重要性，并提出了继续评估和改进投票率调查测量方法的手段。面对面访谈的准确性高于电话访谈，这与前一种方式能让受访者付出更多努力且社会期望偏差较小的观点一致。当询问受访者最近一次选举的情况时，准确性更高，这与遗忘会产生误差的假设一致。旨在尽量减少来源混淆和社会期望偏差的问题措辞提高了准确性。代理报告的投票率低于自我报告，这可能表明代理报告的准确性更高。不投票的人比投票者参与调查的可能性更小。
