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带有对数 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程的随机玉米条纹病毒传染病模型的动力学分析。

Dynamical analysis of a stochastic maize streak virus epidemic model with logarithmic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Key Laboratory of Applied Statistics of MOE, Key Laboratory of Big Data Analysis of Jilin Province, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, Jilin Province, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 2024 Jul 17;89(3):30. doi: 10.1007/s00285-024-02127-3.

Abstract

To describe the transmission dynamics of maize streak virus infection, in the paper, we first formulate a stochastic maize streak virus infection model, in which the stochastic fluctuations are depicted by a logarithmic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This approach is reasonable to simulate the random impacts of main parameters both from the biological significance and the mathematical perspective. Then we investigate the detailed dynamics of the stochastic system, including the existence and uniqueness of the global solution, the existence of a stationary distribution, the exponential extinction of the infected maize and infected leafhopper vector. Especially, by solving the five-dimensional algebraic equations corresponding to the stochastic system, we obtain the specific expression of the probability density function near the quasi-endemic equilibrium of the stochastic system, which provides valuable insights into the stationary distribution. Finally, the model is discretized using the Milstein higher-order numerical method to illustrate our theoretical results numerically. Our findings provide a groundwork for better methods of preventing the spread of this type of virus.

摘要

为了描述玉米条纹病毒感染的传播动力学,我们首先构建了一个随机玉米条纹病毒感染模型,其中随机波动通过对数 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 过程来描述。这种方法从生物学意义和数学角度来看,都是合理的,可以模拟主要参数的随机影响。然后,我们研究了随机系统的详细动力学,包括全局解的存在唯一性、平稳分布的存在性、受感染玉米和受感染叶蝉媒介的指数灭绝。特别是,通过求解对应于随机系统的五维代数方程,我们得到了随机系统准地方性平衡点附近概率密度函数的具体表达式,这为平稳分布提供了有价值的见解。最后,使用 Milstein 高阶数值方法对模型进行离散化,数值模拟验证了我们的理论结果。我们的研究结果为预防此类病毒传播提供了更好的方法的基础。

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