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基于奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程的具有交叉免疫的随机SIRC模型分析

Analysis of Stochastic SIRC Model with Cross Immunity Based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process.

作者信息

Ni Zhiming, Jiang Daqing, Cao Zhongwei, Mu Xiaojie

机构信息

College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580 People's Republic of China.

Logistics Industry Economy and Intelligent Logistics Laboratory, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Changchun, 130117 Jilin Province People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Qual Theory Dyn Syst. 2023;22(3):87. doi: 10.1007/s12346-023-00782-3. Epub 2023 Apr 20.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze a stochastic SIRC model with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Firstly, we give the existence and uniqueness of global solution of stochastic SIRC model and prove it. In addition, the existence of ergodic stationary distributions for stochastic SIRC system is proved by constructing a suitable series of Lyapunov functions. A quasi-endemic equilibrium related to endemic equilibrium of deterministic systems is defined by considering randomness. And we obtain the probability density function of the linearized system near the equilibrium point. After the proof of probability density function, the sufficient condition of disease extinction is given and proved. We prove the theoretical results in the paper by numerical simulation at the end of the paper.

摘要

在本文中,我们分析了一个带有奥恩斯坦 - 乌伦贝克过程的随机SIRC模型。首先,我们给出了随机SIRC模型全局解的存在性和唯一性并加以证明。此外,通过构造一系列合适的李雅普诺夫函数,证明了随机SIRC系统遍历平稳分布的存在性。通过考虑随机性定义了一个与确定性系统的地方病平衡点相关的准地方病平衡点。并且我们得到了平衡点附近线性化系统的概率密度函数。在证明了概率密度函数之后,给出并证明了疾病灭绝的充分条件。在本文结尾,我们通过数值模拟验证了文中的理论结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cbbd/10117279/0909121db05e/12346_2023_782_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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