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不完全疫苗接种的社会与个体年龄依赖性成本

Social vs. individual age-dependent costs of imperfect vaccination.

作者信息

Chalub Fabio A C C, Doutor Paulo, Patrício Paula, Soares Maria do Céu

机构信息

Center for Mathematics and Applications (NOVA Math) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA FCT, Caparica, 2829-516, Portugal.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2024 Sep;375:109259. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109259. Epub 2024 Jul 15.

Abstract

In diseases with long-term immunity, vaccination is known to increase the average age at infection as a result of the decrease in the pathogen circulation. This implies that a vaccination campaign can have negative effects when a disease is more costly (financial or health-related costs) for higher ages. This work considers an age-structured population transmission model with imperfect vaccination. We aim to compare the social and individual costs of vaccination, assuming that disease costs are age-dependent, while the disease's dynamic is age-independent. A model for pathogen deterministic dynamics in a population consisting of juveniles and adults, assumed to be rational agents, is introduced. The parameter region for which vaccination has a positive social impact is fully characterized and the Nash equilibrium of the vaccination game is obtained. Finally, collective strategies designed to promote voluntary vaccination, without compromising social welfare, are discussed.

摘要

在具有长期免疫力的疾病中,由于病原体传播的减少,接种疫苗已知会提高感染的平均年龄。这意味着,当一种疾病在较高年龄时成本更高(财务成本或与健康相关的成本)时,疫苗接种运动可能会产生负面影响。这项工作考虑了一个具有不完全疫苗接种的年龄结构人口传播模型。我们旨在比较疫苗接种的社会成本和个人成本,假设疾病成本与年龄相关,而疾病动态与年龄无关。引入了一个病原体在由青少年和成年人组成的群体中的确定性动态模型,假设这些群体是理性主体。全面刻画了疫苗接种具有积极社会影响的参数区域,并获得了疫苗接种博弈的纳什均衡。最后,讨论了旨在促进自愿接种疫苗且不损害社会福利的集体策略。

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