Qu Shen, She Yunlei, Zhou Qi, Verschuur Jasper, Zhao Lu-Tao, Liu Huan, Xu Ming, Wei Yi-Ming
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Innovation (Camb). 2024 Jun 5;5(4):100653. doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2024.100653. eCollection 2024 Jul 1.
Recent phenomena such as pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and climate change-induced extreme weather events have caused transportation network interruptions, revealing vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A salient example is the March 2021 Suez Canal blockage, which delayed 432 vessels carrying cargo valued at $92.7 billion, triggering widespread supply chain disruptions. Our ability to model the spatiotemporal ramifications of such incidents remains limited. To fill this gap, we develop an agent-based complex network model integrated with frequently updated maritime data. The Suez Canal blockage is taken as a case study. The results indicate that the effects of such blockages go beyond the directly affected countries and sectors. The Suez Canal blockage led to global losses of about $136.9 ($127.5-$147.3) billion, with India suffering 75% of these losses. Global losses show a nonlinear relationship with the duration of blockage and exhibit intricate trends post blockage. Our proposed model can be applied to diverse blockage scenarios, potentially acting as an early-alert system for the ensuing supply chain impacts. Furthermore, high-resolution daily data post blockage offer valuable insights that can help nations and industries enhance their resilience against similar future events.
近期的一些现象，如大流行病、地缘政治紧张局势以及气候变化引发的极端天气事件，已导致运输网络中断，暴露出全球供应链的脆弱性。一个突出的例子是2021年3月的苏伊士运河堵塞事件，该事件致使432艘载有价值927亿美元货物的船只延误，引发了广泛的供应链中断。我们对这类事件的时空影响进行建模的能力仍然有限。为填补这一空白，我们开发了一个集成了频繁更新的海事数据的基于主体的复杂网络模型。以苏伊士运河堵塞事件作为案例研究。结果表明，此类堵塞的影响超出了直接受影响的国家和行业。苏伊士运河堵塞事件导致全球损失约1369亿美元（1275亿 - 1473亿美元），其中印度承担了这些损失的75%。全球损失与堵塞持续时间呈非线性关系，并且在堵塞后呈现出复杂的趋势。我们提出的模型可应用于各种堵塞场景，有可能作为对随后供应链影响的早期预警系统。此外，堵塞后的高分辨率每日数据提供了有价值的见解，有助于各国和各行业增强应对未来类似事件的复原力。
