Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 27;13(1):4351. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32070-0.
We quantify the criticality of the world's 1300 most important ports for global supply chains by predicting the allocation of trade flows on the global maritime transport network, which we link to a global supply-chain database to evaluate the importance of ports for the economy. We find that 50% of global trade in value terms is maritime, with low-income countries and small islands being 1.5 and 2.0 times more reliant on their ports compared to the global average. The five largest ports globally handle goods that embody >1.4% of global output, while 40 ports add >10% of domestic output of the economies they serve, predominantly small islands. We identify critical cross-border infrastructure dependencies for some landlocked and island countries that rely on specific ports outside their jurisdiction. Our results pave the way for developing new strategies to enhance the resilience and sustainability of port infrastructure and maritime trade.
我们通过预测全球海上运输网络中的贸易流量分配来量化全球供应链中 1300 个最重要港口的关键性，我们将其与全球供应链数据库相链接，以评估港口对经济的重要性。我们发现，以价值计算，全球 50%的贸易是通过海路进行的，与全球平均水平相比，低收入国家和小岛屿国家对其港口的依赖程度分别高出 1.5 倍和 2.0 倍。全球前五大港口处理的货物占全球产出的 1.4%以上，而 40 个港口为其服务的经济体增加了超过 10%的国内产出，其中主要是小岛屿国家。我们确定了一些内陆国家和岛国对跨越国境基础设施的关键依赖，这些国家依赖于其管辖范围之外的特定港口。我们的研究结果为制定新战略提供了依据，以增强港口基础设施和海上贸易的弹性和可持续性。
