Hu Ankui, Li Yajing, Li Haizhen, Wang Baoda
School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xihua University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610039, China.
Key Laboratory of Fluid and Power Machinery of Ministry of Education, Xihua University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610039, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Jun 19;10(12):e33215. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33215. eCollection 2024 Jun 30.
Earth-rock dam failures account for the largest proportion of all dam failure accidents. There are many factors inducing accidents in hydroelectric projects, and the relationships between them are intricate and complex. Therefore, it is crucial to explore the relationship between the influencing factors and identify the key factors leading to accidents. Through an analysis of the factors influencing earth rock dam failures, an index system for failure influence factors was constructed in this paper. Considering complexity and integration in influence factors analysis, a DEMATEL-ISM model (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory; Interpretive Structural Model) analysis method was employed to examine the internal relationship among various factors based on the influence degree between them, and a MICMAC model (Matrix Impacts Cross-reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification methodology) was introduced to analyze the hierarchical relationship between various factors. The results showed that The results show that the seismic capacity and flood discharge capacity of the dam body are the key influencing factors of dam safety during the operation of the earth-rock dams. The comprehensive method employed in this paper overcame the complexity of evaluation results and was capable of more directly presenting relationships of factors. As suggested by these results, the analysis model employed in this paper has great significance for preparing a flexible-efficient management scheme for earth-rock dams.
土石坝失事在所有大坝失事事故中占比最大。水电工程诱发事故的因素众多，且它们之间的关系错综复杂。因此，探究影响因素之间的关系并识别导致事故的关键因素至关重要。通过对土石坝失事影响因素的分析，本文构建了失事影响因素指标体系。考虑到影响因素分析中的复杂性和综合性，采用决策试验与评价实验室法（DEMATEL）和解释结构模型法（ISM）相结合的分析方法，基于各因素间的影响程度来考察它们之间的内在关系，并引入矩阵影响交叉相乘应用分类法（MICMAC）模型来分析各因素之间的层次关系。结果表明，坝体抗震能力和泄洪能力是土石坝运行期间大坝安全的关键影响因素。本文采用的综合方法克服了评价结果的复杂性，能够更直接地呈现因素之间的关系。这些结果表明，本文采用的分析模型对于制定灵活高效的土石坝管理方案具有重要意义。
