Fermín-Martínez Carlos A, Ramírez-García Daniel, Antonio-Villa Neftali Eduardo, Espinosa Jerónimo Perezalonso, Aguilar-Ramírez Diego, García-Peña Carmen, Gutiérrez-Robledo Luis Miguel, Seiglie Jacqueline A, Bello-Chavolla Omar Yaxmehen
Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.
MD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
medRxiv. 2024 Jul 10:2024.07.09.24310149. doi: 10.1101/2024.07.09.24310149.
To validate AnthropoAge, a new metric of biological age (BA), for prediction of all-cause mortality and age-related outcomes and characterize population-specific aging patterns using multinational longitudinal cohorts.
We analyzed harmonized multinational data from the Gateway to Global Aging, including studies from the US, England, Mexico, Costa Rica, and China. We used body mass index and waist-to-height ratio to estimate AnthropoAge and AnthropoAgeAccel in participants aged 50-90 years old as proxies of BA and age acceleration, respectively. We compared the predictive capacity for all-cause mortality of AnthropoAge and chronological age (CA) using Cox models, described aging trends in all countries and explored the utility of longitudinal assessments of AnthropoAgeAccel to predict new-onset functional decline and age-related diseases using generalized estimating equations (GEE).
Using data from 55,628 participants, we found AnthropoAge (c-statistic 0.772) outperformed CA (0.76) for prediction of mortality independently of comorbidities, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and lifestyle; this result was replicated in most countries individually except for Mexico. Individuals with accelerated aging had a ~39% higher risk of death, and AnthropoAge also identified trends of faster biological aging per year. In longitudinal analyses, higher AnthropoAgeAccel values were independently predictive of self-reported health deterioration and new-onset deficits in basic/instrumental activities of daily living (ADL/IADL), diabetes, hypertension, cancer, chronic lung disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke.
AnthropoAge is a robust and reproducible BA metric associated with age-related outcomes. Its implementation could facilitate modeling trends of biological aging acceleration in different populations, although recalibration may enhance its utility in underrepresented populations such as individuals from Latin America.
验证生物年龄（BA）的新指标AnthropoAge，用于预测全因死亡率和与年龄相关的结局，并使用多国纵向队列描述特定人群的衰老模式。
我们分析了来自全球老龄化通道的协调后的多国数据，包括来自美国、英国、墨西哥、哥斯达黎加和中国的研究。我们使用体重指数和腰高比分别估计50至90岁参与者的AnthropoAge和AnthropoAgeAccel，作为BA和年龄加速的代理指标。我们使用Cox模型比较了AnthropoAge和实际年龄（CA）对全因死亡率的预测能力，描述了所有国家的衰老趋势，并使用广义估计方程（GEE）探讨了AnthropoAgeAccel纵向评估对预测新发功能衰退和与年龄相关疾病的效用。
使用来自55628名参与者的数据，我们发现AnthropoAge（c统计量为0.772）在预测死亡率方面优于CA（0.76），且独立于合并症、性别、种族/民族、教育和生活方式；除墨西哥外，该结果在大多数国家均得到单独验证。衰老加速的个体死亡风险高约39%，AnthropoAge还识别出每年生物衰老更快的趋势。在纵向分析中，较高的AnthropoAgeAccel值可独立预测自我报告的健康恶化以及日常生活基本/工具性活动（ADL/IADL）、糖尿病、高血压、癌症、慢性肺病、心肌梗死和中风方面的新发缺陷。
AnthropoAge是一种与年龄相关结局相关的稳健且可重复的BA指标。其应用可促进对不同人群生物衰老加速趋势的建模，尽管重新校准可能会提高其在拉丁美洲等代表性不足人群中的效用。
