Death Risk Response of High-Altitude Resident Populations to COVID-19 Vaccine: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Vásquez-Velásquez, Cinthya, Diego Fano-Sizgorich, and Gustavo F. Gonzales. Death risk response of high-altitude resident populations to COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective cohort study. 26:37-44, 2025. Peru had one of the highest mortality rates caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide. Vaccination significantly reduces mortality. However, the effectiveness of vaccination might differ at different altitudinal levels. The study aimed to evaluate the effect modification of altitude on the association between vaccination and COVID-19 mortality in Peru. A retrospective cohort, using open access databases of deaths, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and vaccination was obtained from the Peruvian Ministry of Health. Deaths due to COVID-19 were evaluated in vaccinated and nonvaccinated patients. Crude (RR) and adjusted relative risks (aRR) were calculated using generalized linear models of Poisson family with robust variances. Models were adjusted for age, sex, pandemic wave, and Human Development Index. To evaluate the interaction by altitude, a stratified analysis by this variable was performed. The variable altitude was categorized as, 0-499 m (828,298 cases), 500-1,499 m (64,735 cases), 1,500-2,499 m (106,572 cases), and ≥2,500 m (179,004 cases). The final sample studied included 1,362,350 cases. The vaccine showed a considerable reduction of death risk with the second (aRR: 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38-0.44) and third doses (aRR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.20-0.23). In the adjusted and interaction model, it can be observed that medium and high altitude present a higher risk of death compared to sea level (aRR: 2.58 and 2.03, respectively). Likewise, the two doses' group presents an aRR:1.22 for medium altitude (1,500-2,499 m) and 1.6 for high altitude (≥2,500 m), compared with low-altitude population, suggesting that the action of vaccination at high altitude is altered by the effect of the altitude itself. Altitude might modify the protective effect of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine against COVID-19 death.