Department of Biodiversity and Conservation of Natural Resources, Central University of Odisha, Sunabeda, NAD, Koraput 763 004, India.
J Biosci. 2024;49.
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) is a recently signed protocol by the conference of the parties (COP 15) with an aim to protect biodiversity from risks imposed by biological threats such as invasive alien species (IAS). The present work is an effort to meet target 6 of GBF which directly deals with IAS by assessing the current and future distribution of species in regions of the Eastern Ghats of India. Prediction of distribution was done based on greenhouse gas emission levels, namely RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 for the climatic years 2030, 2050 and 2080. Of a total of 23 environmental parameters (19 bioclimatic, 1 land use land cover (LULC) and 3 topographic) seven were selected for species distribution modeling (SDM) considering value inflation factor (VIF) scores <3 by using maximum entropy. In the current climatic scenario, 40.09% of the geographical area (TGA) is covered by species which will reach 76.51%, 77.44%, 82.58% for RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 respectively by the end of 2100. Both the AUC value (0.884) and Jackknife test have shown a good model performance. The Eastern Ghats, being a biodiversity-rich zone, needs efficient conservation and management strategies to decrease the extent of invaded areas to maximize biodiversity returns.
《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》（GBF）是缔约方会议（COP 15）最近签署的一项协议，旨在保护生物多样性免受生物威胁（如入侵外来物种[IAS]）带来的风险。本工作旨在实现 GBF 的目标 6，该目标直接涉及 IAS，通过评估印度东高止山脉地区物种的当前和未来分布来评估 IAS。分布预测是基于温室气体排放水平进行的，即 RCP 4.5、6.0 和 8.5 用于 2030 年、2050 年和 2080 年的气候年。在总共 23 个环境参数（19 个生物气候、1 个土地利用/土地覆盖[LULC]和 3 个地形）中，考虑到价值膨胀因子（VIF）<3，使用最大熵选择了 7 个用于物种分布模型（SDM）。在当前的气候情景下，40.09%的地理区域（TGA）被物种覆盖，到 2100 年底，RCP 4.5、6.0 和 8.5 分别将达到 76.51%、77.44%和 82.58%。AUC 值（0.884）和 Jackknife 测试都显示出良好的模型性能。东高止山脉是一个生物多样性丰富的地区，需要有效的保护和管理策略来减少受入侵地区的范围，以最大限度地提高生物多样性的回报。
