西班牙流感和 2019 年冠状病毒病在荷兰的死亡率：历史比较。

Mortality Rates of the Spanish Flu and Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Netherlands: A Historical Comparison.

机构信息

Department of Health and Care, Statistics Netherlands (CBS), The Hague, the Netherlands.

Retired cardiologist, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

出版信息

J Infect Dis. 2024 Jul 25;230(1):38-44. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae071.

DOI:10.1093/infdis/jiae071

PMID:39052739

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been called the deadliest disease event in history. In this study, we compared the cause-specific mortality rate of the Spanish flu (1918-1920) with that of COVID-19 (2020-2022) in the Netherlands. During the periods of exposure, about 50 000 people died of COVID-19 and 32 000 people of the Spanish flu. In absolute numbers, COVID-19 seems to be deadlier than Spanish flu. However, the crude mortality rates for COVID-19 and Spanish flu were 287 and 486 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Comparing age-standardized mortality rates, there would have been 28 COVID-19- and 194 Spanish flu-related deaths in 1918-1920, or 214 Spanish flu- and 98 COVID-19-related deaths in 2020-2022 per 100 000 inhabitants per year. Thus, taking the population differences into account, the Spanish flu would have been deadlier than COVID-19.

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行被称为历史上最致命的疾病事件。在本研究中，我们比较了荷兰 1918-1920 年西班牙流感和 2020-2022 年 COVID-19 的特定病因死亡率。在暴露期间，约有 50000 人死于 COVID-19，32000 人死于西班牙流感。就绝对数字而言，COVID-19 似乎比西班牙流感更致命。然而，COVID-19 和西班牙流感的粗死亡率分别为每 10 万人 287 和 486。比较年龄标准化死亡率，在 1918-1920 年，COVID-19 会导致 28 人死亡，而西班牙流感会导致 194 人死亡，或在 2020-2022 年，COVID-19 会导致每 10 万人每年 214 人死亡，而西班牙流感会导致 98 人死亡。因此，考虑到人口差异，西班牙流感的致命性会高于 COVID-19。