Anderson Amanda Hyre
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294, United States.
Am J Epidemiol. 2025 Mar 4;194(3):659-661. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwae222.
Causal inference methods intended for use with observational data have been widely available for decades, but barriers to their widespread adoption exist. These likely include lack of familiarity with several methodological techniques often used in combination in these investigations, such as inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-estimation, and the intensity of computational effort needed to employ these techniques. Even with these methods, critical design flaws undermine the ability to make valid causal inference in some studies. Identification of the need to explicitly pair study design elements with these causal inference methods led to development of a methodological approach recently termed target trial emulation. This approach requires that investigators define a hypothetical randomized trial, emulate that hypothetical protocol in assembling the cohort and defining study elements, and then conduct an analysis that attempts to mirror random treatment assignment. In the accompanying article by Heindel et al (Am J Epidemiol. 2025;194(3):651-658), the authors successfully emulate a target trial of systemic heparin during arteriovenous fistula creation on short-term endpoints by utilizing data from 2 existing randomized trials with key confounders available. Target trial emulation provides a framework with which to promote valid inference and generate high-quality contributions to the literature, and its use should be expanded.
旨在用于观察性数据的因果推断方法已经广泛存在了几十年,但它们被广泛采用存在障碍。这些障碍可能包括对这些研究中经常联合使用的几种方法技术缺乏熟悉度,如治疗权重的逆概率和g估计,以及运用这些技术所需的计算工作量。即使有了这些方法,一些研究中关键的设计缺陷也会削弱做出有效因果推断的能力。认识到需要将研究设计要素与这些因果推断方法明确配对,从而催生了一种最近被称为目标试验模拟的方法。这种方法要求研究者定义一个假设的随机试验,在组建队列和定义研究要素时模拟该假设方案,然后进行一项试图反映随机治疗分配的分析。在Heindel等人的随附文章(《美国流行病学杂志》。2025年;194(3):651 - 658)中,作者利用来自2项现有随机试验的数据以及关键混杂因素,成功地模拟了一项关于动静脉内瘘创建期间全身性肝素对短期终点影响的目标试验。目标试验模拟提供了一个促进有效推断并为文献做出高质量贡献的框架,其应用应该得到扩展。