Zachary Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136, USA.
Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2024 Oct;206:107713. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107713. Epub 2024 Jul 24.
Identifying factors that significantly affect drivers that are repeatedly involved in traffic violations or non-fatal crashes (defined here as recidivist drivers) is very important in highway safety studies. This study sought to understand the relationship between a set of variables related to previous driving violations and the duration between a previous non-fatal crash and a subsequent fatal crash, taking into account the age and gender of the driver. By identifying the characteristics of this unique driver population and the factors that influence the duration between their crash events strategies can be put in place to prevent the occurrence of future and potentially fatal crashes. To do this, a five-year (2015-2019) historical fatal crash data from the United States was used for this study. Out of 15,956 fatal crashes involving recidivist drivers obtained, preliminary analysis revealed an overrepresentation of males (about 75%). It was also found that the average duration between the two crash events was about a year and a half, with only an average of one month difference between male and female drivers. Using hazard-based duration models, factors such as number of previous crashes, previous traffic violations, primary contributing factors and some driver demographic characteristics were found to significantly be associated with the duration between the two crash events. The duration between the two events increased with driver's age for drivers who were involved in only one previous crash and the duration was shorter for those that were previously involved in multiple crashes. Previous DUI violations, license suspensions, and previous speeding violations were found to be associated with shorter durations, at varying degrees depending on the driver's age and gender. The duration was also observed to be longer if the fatal crash involved alcohol or drug use among younger drivers but shorter among middle-aged male drivers. These findings reveal interesting dynamics that may be linked to recidivist tendencies among some drivers involved in fatal crashes. The factors identified from this study could help identify crash countermeasures and programs that will help to reform such driver behaviors.
确定导致驾驶员多次违反交通规则或发生非致命事故（此处定义为累犯驾驶员）的因素，对于公路安全研究非常重要。本研究旨在了解与先前驾驶违规相关的一组变量与前一次非致命事故与随后致命事故之间的持续时间之间的关系，同时考虑到驾驶员的年龄和性别。通过确定这种独特驾驶员群体的特征以及影响其事故发生时间的因素，可以制定策略来防止未来潜在致命事故的发生。为此，本研究使用了美国五年（2015-2019 年）的历史致命事故数据。在获得的 15956 起涉及累犯驾驶员的致命事故中，初步分析显示男性驾驶员占比过高（约 75%）。还发现两次事故之间的平均持续时间约为一年半，男性和女性驾驶员之间仅相差一个月。使用基于风险的持续时间模型，发现先前的事故次数、先前的交通违规行为、主要促成因素和一些驾驶员人口统计特征等因素与两次事故之间的持续时间显著相关。对于仅涉及一次先前事故的驾驶员，其年龄越大，两次事故之间的持续时间就越长，而对于先前涉及多次事故的驾驶员，持续时间则越短。先前的酒驾违规、驾照吊销和先前的超速违规与持续时间相关，其关联程度因驾驶员的年龄和性别而异。如果年轻驾驶员的致命事故涉及酒精或药物使用，持续时间会更长，但中年男性驾驶员的持续时间则会更短。这些发现揭示了一些有趣的动态，这些动态可能与一些涉及致命事故的累犯驾驶员的趋势有关。本研究确定的因素有助于确定事故对策和计划，以帮助纠正此类驾驶员行为。
