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古巴人畜-环境界面禽流感病毒传播建模

Modeling transmission of avian influenza viruses at the human-animal-environment interface in Cuba.

作者信息

Montano Valle Damarys de Las Nieves, Berezowski John, Delgado-Hernández Beatriz, Hernández Adrian Quintana, Percedo-Abreu María Irian, Alfonso Pastor, Carmo Luis Pedro

机构信息

Epidemiology Group, National Center for Animal and Plant Health (CENSA), World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Collaborating Center for the Reduction of the Risk of Disaster in Animal Health, San José de las Lajas, Cuba.

Center for Epidemiology and Planetary Health, Scotland's Rural College, Inverness, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Front Vet Sci. 2024 Jul 11;11:1415559. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1415559. eCollection 2024.

DOI:10.3389/fvets.2024.1415559
PMID:39055861
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11269842/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

The increasing geographical spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) is of global concern due to the underlying zoonotic and pandemic potential of the virus and its economic impact. An integrated One Health model was developed to estimate the likelihood of Avian Influenza (AI) introduction and transmission in Cuba, which will help inform and strengthen risk-based surveillance activities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The spatial resolution used for the model was the smallest administrative district ("Consejo Popular"). The model was parameterised for transmission from wild birds to poultry and pigs (commercial and backyard) and then to humans. The model includes parameters such as risk factors for the introduction and transmission of AI into Cuba, animal and human population densities; contact intensity and a transmission parameter (β).

RESULTS

Areas with a higher risk of AI transmission were identified for each species and type of production system. Some variability was observed in the distribution of areas estimated to have a higher probability of AI introduction and transmission. In particular, the south-western and eastern regions of Cuba were highlighted as areas with the highest risk of transmission.

DISCUSSION

These results are potentially useful for refining existing criteria for the selection of farms for active surveillance, which could improve the ability to detect positive cases. The model results could contribute to the design of an integrated One Health risk-based surveillance system for AI in Cuba. In addition, the model identified geographical regions of particular importance where resources could be targeted to strengthen biosecurity and early warning surveillance.

摘要

引言

高致病性禽流感病毒（HPAIVs）在地理上的传播范围不断扩大，因其潜在的人畜共患病和大流行风险以及经济影响而受到全球关注。古巴开发了一种综合的“同一个健康”模型，以评估禽流感（AI）传入和传播的可能性，这将有助于为基于风险的监测活动提供信息并加强此类活动。

材料与方法

该模型使用的空间分辨率是最小的行政区（“人民委员会”）。该模型针对从野生鸟类传播到家禽和猪（商业养殖和家庭养殖）再到人类的情况进行了参数设置。该模型包括诸如禽流感传入和在古巴传播的风险因素、动物和人类人口密度、接触强度以及传播参数（β）等参数。

结果

确定了每个物种和生产系统类型中禽流感传播风险较高的区域。在估计禽流感传入和传播概率较高的区域分布中观察到了一些差异。特别是，古巴的西南部和东部地区被突出显示为传播风险最高的区域。

讨论

这些结果可能有助于完善现有用于选择农场进行主动监测的标准，从而提高检测阳性病例的能力。模型结果有助于设计古巴基于“同一个健康”风险的禽流感综合监测系统。此外，该模型确定了特别重要的地理区域，可将资源集中用于加强生物安全和早期预警监测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/550b98747341/fvets-11-1415559-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/dfc9eeb00558/fvets-11-1415559-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/c4789ea9ce44/fvets-11-1415559-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/82c2272ddb80/fvets-11-1415559-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/2320a65c8c55/fvets-11-1415559-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/75c930b1dba9/fvets-11-1415559-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/b686a32493d8/fvets-11-1415559-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/58f45e9012c0/fvets-11-1415559-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/550b98747341/fvets-11-1415559-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/dfc9eeb00558/fvets-11-1415559-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/c4789ea9ce44/fvets-11-1415559-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/82c2272ddb80/fvets-11-1415559-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/2320a65c8c55/fvets-11-1415559-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/75c930b1dba9/fvets-11-1415559-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/b686a32493d8/fvets-11-1415559-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/58f45e9012c0/fvets-11-1415559-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f39/11269842/550b98747341/fvets-11-1415559-g0008.jpg

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