School of Credit Management, Guangdong University of Finance, Guang Zhou, China.
South China Institute of Innovative Finance, Guangdong University of Finance, Guang Zhou, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Jul 26;19(7):e0306260. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306260. eCollection 2024.
There is growing interest in the impact of climate change on agricultural labor supply in China, rigorous empirical evidence for this issue is insufficient. This potentially important channel through which climate change may affect agricultural labor supply has not received attention. Using a panel survey data of 100 administrative villages and 2977 farmers in China, we find that temperature and precipitation do affect farmers' labor allocation, 1°C increase from the current average temperature will reduce agricultural labor supply by 0.252%, and 1mm increase from the current average rainfall will reduce agricultural labor supply by 0.001%. Climate change also leads to the decline of net agricultural income, which creates distorted incentives for households to over-supply labor to non-agriculture. Moreover, farmers with relatively lower risk tolerance preferred to reduce the current supply of agricultural labor when net agricultural income is projected to decrease under climate change scenarios.
气候变化对中国农业劳动力供给的影响引起了越来越多的关注，但针对这一问题的严谨实证证据仍然不足。气候变化可能通过这一重要渠道影响农业劳动力供给，但这一问题尚未得到关注。本文利用中国 100 个行政村和 2977 户农户的面板调查数据，发现温度和降水确实会影响农民的劳动力配置，当前平均温度每升高 1°C，农业劳动力供给将减少 0.252%，当前平均降雨量每增加 1 毫米，农业劳动力供给将减少 0.001%。气候变化还导致农业净收入下降，这为农户向非农产业过度供给劳动力创造了扭曲的激励。此外，在气候变化情景下，当预计农业净收入下降时，风险承受能力相对较低的农户更倾向于减少当前农业劳动力的供给。
