He Yunjiang, Xie Jinliang, Guo Yuna, Ma Jue, Wang Xiaojin, Lv Yao, Wu Siqi, Wei Siying, Xie Xianjing, Wang Bingshun
School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Department of Biostatistics, Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2025 Jan;168(1):196-204. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.15825. Epub 2024 Jul 28.
To investigate the contribution of longitudinal mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement during the first, second, and third trimesters of twin pregnancies to the prediction of pre-eclampsia.
A retrospective cohort study was conducted on women with twin pregnancies. Historical data between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed, including maternal characteristics and mean artery pressure measurements were obtained at 11-13, 22-24, and 28-33 weeks of gestation. The outcome measures included pre-eclampsia with delivery <34 and ≥34 weeks of gestation. Models were developed using logistic regression, and predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the curve, detection rate at a given false-positive rate of 10%, and calibration plots. Internal validation was conducted via bootstrapping.
A total of 943 twin pregnancies, including 36 (3.82%) women who experienced early-onset pre-eclampsia and 93 (9.86%) who developed late-onset pre-eclampsia, were included in this study. To forecast pre-eclampsia during the third trimester, the most accurate prediction for early-onset pre-eclampsia resulted from a combination of maternal factors and MAP measured during this trimester. The optimal predictive model for late-onset pre-eclampsia includes maternal factors and MAP data collected during the second and third trimesters. The areas under the curve were 0.937 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.894-0.981) and 0.887 (95% CI 0.852-0.921), respectively. The corresponding detection rates were 83.33% (95% CI 66.53%-93.04%) for early-onset pre-eclampsia and 68.82% (95% CI 58.26%-77.80%) for late-onset pre-eclampsia.
Repeated measurements of MAP during pregnancy significantly improved the accuracy of late-onset pre-eclampsia prediction in twin pregnancies. The integration of longitudinal data into pre-eclampsia screening may be an effective and valuable strategy.
探讨双胎妊娠早、中、晚期纵向平均动脉压(MAP)测量对先兆子痫预测的贡献。
对双胎妊娠女性进行回顾性队列研究。分析2019年至2021年的历史数据,包括产妇特征,并在妊娠11 - 13周、22 - 24周和28 - 33周时测量平均动脉压。结局指标包括妊娠<34周和≥34周分娩的先兆子痫。使用逻辑回归建立模型,并通过曲线下面积、给定假阳性率10%时的检测率和校准图评估预测性能。通过自抽样进行内部验证。
本研究共纳入943例双胎妊娠,其中36例(3.82%)发生早发型先兆子痫,93例(9.86%)发生晚发型先兆子痫。为预测晚期先兆子痫,早发型先兆子痫最准确的预测结果来自于孕晚期产妇因素和MAP测量值的组合。晚发型先兆子痫的最佳预测模型包括产妇因素以及孕中期和孕晚期收集的MAP数据。曲线下面积分别为0.937(95%置信区间[CI] 0.894 - 0.981)和0.887(95% CI 0.852 - 0.921)。早发型先兆子痫和晚发型先兆子痫的相应检测率分别为83.33%(95% CI 66.53% - 93.04%)和68.82%(95% CI 58.26% - 77.80%)。
孕期重复测量MAP显著提高了双胎妊娠晚发型先兆子痫预测的准确性。将纵向数据纳入先兆子痫筛查可能是一种有效且有价值的策略。