Mindsets, contexts, and college enrollment: Taking the long view on growth mindset beliefs at the transition to high school.

Socioeconomic disparities in academic progress have persisted throughout the history of the United States, and growth mindset interventions-which shift beliefs about the malleability of intelligence-have shown promise in reducing these disparities. Both the study of such disparities and how to remedy them can benefit from taking the "long view" on adolescent development, following the tradition of John Schulenberg. To do so, this study focuses on the role of growth mindsets in short-term academic progress during the transition to high school as a contributor to longer-term educational attainment. Guided by the Mindset × Context perspective, we analyzed new follow-up data to a one-year nationally representative study of ninth graders (National Study of Learning Mindsets, n = 10,013; 50% female; 53% white; 63% from lower-SES backgrounds). A conservative Bayesian analysis revealed that adolescents' growth mindset beliefs at the beginning of ninth grade predicted their enrollment in college 4 years later. These patterns were stronger for adolescents from lower-SES backgrounds, and there was some evidence that the ninth-grade math teacher's support for the growth mindset moderated student mindset effects. Thus, a time-specific combination of student and teacher might alter long-term trajectories by enabling adolescents to develop and use beliefs at a critical transition point that supports a cumulative pathway of course-taking and achievement into college. Notably, growth mindset became less predictive of college enrollment after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which occurred in the second year of college and introduced structural barriers to college persistence.