PURPOSE

Assessing risk of recurrence for nonmetastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a key determinant of therapeutic strategy. The best predictor of recurrence risk is failure to achieve a pathologic complete response after preoperative chemotherapy, but it imperfectly correlates with the definitive end points of relapse-free and overall survival (OS). The inability to accurately predict recurrence has led to increasingly toxic treatment regimens for patients with early-stage TNBC. Better assays for recurrence risk are needed to tailor aggressive therapy for patients who need it and avoid overtreatment and unnecessary toxicity for those at low risk. The purpose of this study was to determine if patient-derived xenograft (PDX) engraftment of newly diagnosed breast tumors can serve as an accurate predictor of recurrence and death from breast cancer.

METHODS

This study was a blinded noninterventional trial comprising 80 patients with newly diagnosed, nonmetastatic, estrogen receptor (ER)-negative or ER-low breast cancer.

RESULTS

PDX engraftment was strongly associated with relapse in 1 year: 8 of 18 (44.4%) patients whose tumors engrafted relapsed versus 1 of 62 (1.6%) patients whose tumors did not engraft ( < .0001). Patients whose tumors engrafted had a hazard ratio (HR) for relapse of 17.5. HRs for OS and breast cancer-specific survival in PDX+ patients were 21.1 and 39.5, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We report that the ability of a tumor to engraft as a PDX predicts early recurrence by serving as a functional readout of aggressiveness and prospectively identifies the most devastating tumors. This provides new opportunity to develop surrogate assays, such as biomarkers of engraftment, which will extend the clinical feasibility of this finding.