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史前欧洲的消费模式与现代经济行为一致。

Consumption patterns in prehistoric Europe are consistent with modern economic behaviour.

机构信息

Seminar für Ur- und Frühgeschichte, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.

Department of Archeology and Heritage Studies, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.

出版信息

Nat Hum Behav. 2024 Sep;8(9):1660-1675. doi: 10.1038/s41562-024-01926-4. Epub 2024 Jul 29.

DOI:10.1038/s41562-024-01926-4
PMID:39075296
Abstract

Have humans always sold and purchased things? This seemingly trivial question exposes one of the most conspicuous blind spots in our understanding of cultural evolution: the emergence of what we perceive today as 'modern' economic behaviour. Here we test the hypothesis that consumption patterns in prehistoric Europe (around 2300-800 BCE) can be explained by standard economic theory, predicting that everyday expenses are log-normally distributed and correlated to supply, demand and income. On the basis of a large database of metal objects spanning northern and southern Europe (n = 23,711), we identify metal fragments as money, address them as proxies of consumption and observe that, starting around 1500 BCE, their mass values become log-normally distributed. We simulate two alternative scenarios and show that: (1) random behaviour cannot produce the distributions observed in the archaeological data and (2) modern economic behaviour provides the best-fitting model for prehistoric consumption.

摘要

人类是否一直都在买卖东西?这个看似微不足道的问题,揭示了我们对文化进化理解中最明显的一个盲点:即我们今天所认为的“现代”经济行为的出现。在这里,我们检验了一个假设,即在史前欧洲(公元前 2300 年至 800 年)的消费模式可以用标准经济理论来解释,该理论预测日常支出呈对数正态分布,并与供应、需求和收入相关。基于一个涵盖北欧和南欧的金属物体大型数据库(n=23711),我们将金属碎片识别为货币,并将其作为消费的代表进行研究,结果表明,大约从公元前 1500 年开始,它们的质量值开始呈对数正态分布。我们模拟了两种替代方案,并表明:(1)随机行为不能产生在考古数据中观察到的分布;(2)现代经济行为为史前消费提供了最佳拟合模型。

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Metal consumption of a middle-range society in the late 3rd millennium BC Anatolia: A new socioeconomic approach.公元前 3000 年末期安纳托利亚地区中等社会的金属消费:一种新的社会经济学方法。
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Emergence of monopoly-Copper exchange networks during the Late Bronze Age in the western and central Balkans.
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Apr 22;122(16):e2400693122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2400693122. Epub 2025 Apr 14.
垄断的出现——在青铜时代晚期,在西巴尔干和中巴尔干的铜交换网络。
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 11;17(3):e0263823. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263823. eCollection 2022.
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PLoS One. 2021 Jun 16;16(6):e0252376. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252376. eCollection 2021.
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