Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Universty of Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin.
Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, 79104, Freiburg, Germany.
Math Med Biol. 2024 Sep 16;41(3):225-249. doi: 10.1093/imammb/dqae013.
Since 2019, a new strain of coronavirus has challenged global health systems. Due its fragile healthcare systems, Africa was predicted to be the most affected continent. However, past experiences of African countries with epidemics and other factors, including actions taken by governments, have contributed to reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to assess the marginal impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in fifteen African countries during the pre-vaccination period. To describe the transmission dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2 spread, an extended time-dependent SEIR model was used. The transmission rate of each infectious stage was obtained using a logistic model with NPI intensity as a covariate. The results revealed that the effects of NPIs varied between countries. Overall, restrictive measures related to assembly had, in most countries, the largest reducing effects on the pre-symptomatic and mild transmission, while the transmission by severe individuals is influenced by privacy measures (more than $10%$). Countries should develop efficient alternatives to assembly restrictions to preserve the economic sector. This involves e.g. training in digital tools and strengthening digital infrastructures.
自 2019 年以来，一种新型冠状病毒挑战了全球卫生系统。由于脆弱的医疗体系，非洲预计将成为受影响最严重的大陆。然而，非洲国家过去应对流行病和其他因素的经验，包括政府采取的行动，有助于减少 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。本研究旨在评估在疫苗接种前的 15 个非洲国家中非药物干预的边际影响。为了描述 SARS-CoV-2 传播的传播动态和控制，使用了一个扩展的时变 SEIR 模型。每个感染阶段的传播率是使用与 NPI 强度作为协变量的逻辑模型获得的。结果表明，NPIs 的效果在各国之间存在差异。总体而言，与集会相关的限制措施在大多数国家对无症状和轻度传播的减少效果最大，而严重个体的传播受隐私措施的影响（超过 10%）。各国应制定有效的集会限制替代方案，以保护经济部门。这涉及例如培训数字工具和加强数字基础设施。
