RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California.
RAND Corporation, Arlington, Virginia.
JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2422948. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.22948.
Despite high social and public health costs of firearm violence in the United States, the effects of many policies designed to reduce firearm mortality remain uncertain.
To estimate the individual and joint effect sizes of state firearm policies on firearm-related mortality.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this comparative effectiveness study, bayesian methods were used to model panel data of annual, state-level mortality rates (1979-2019) for all US firearm decedents, with analyses conducted in October 2023.
Six classes of firearms policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws.
Primary outcomes (total firearm deaths, firearm homicide deaths, and firearm suicide deaths) were assessed using the National Vital Statistics System. Bayesian estimation was used to estimate the partial association of changes in firearms policies with subsequent changes in firearm mortality.
The estimated effect sizes of individual policies 5 or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The policy class with the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was child-access prevention laws, estimated to reduce overall firearm mortality by 6% (80% credible interval [CrI], -2% to -9%). The policy class with the highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was stand-your-ground laws, estimated to increase firearm homicides by 6% (80% CrI, 0% to 13% increase). Estimates of association of implementing multiple firearm restrictions with subsequent changes in firearm mortality yielded larger effect sizes. Moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies was associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths (80% CrI, 10% to 28% reduction), with a 0.99 probability of any reductions in firearm death rates.
In this comparative effectiveness study of state firearm policies, the joint effect estimates of combinations of firearm laws were calculated, showing that restrictive firearm policies were associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality. Although policymakers would benefit from knowing the effects of individual policies, the estimated changes in firearm mortality following implementation of individual policies were often small and uncertain.
尽管美国枪支暴力造成了高昂的社会和公共卫生成本，但许多旨在降低枪支死亡率的政策的效果仍不确定。
评估州级枪支政策对与枪支相关的死亡率的个体和联合效应大小。
设计、设置和参与者：在这项比较效果研究中，使用贝叶斯方法对 1979 年至 2019 年美国所有枪支死亡者的年度州级死亡率的面板数据进行建模，分析于 2023 年 10 月进行。
六类枪支政策：背景调查、最低年龄、等待期、儿童接触、隐蔽携带和坚守阵地法。
主要结果（总枪支死亡、枪支凶杀死亡和枪支自杀死亡）使用国家生命统计系统进行评估。贝叶斯估计用于估计枪支政策变化与随后枪支死亡率变化之间的部分关联。
实施后 5 年或更长时间的个别政策的估计效应大小通常较小，且具有相当大的不确定性。降低枪支死亡率概率最高的政策类别是预防儿童接触的法律，估计将整体枪支死亡率降低 6%（80%可信区间[CrI]，-2%至-9%）。增加枪支死亡率概率最高的政策类别是坚守阵地法，估计枪支凶杀案增加 6%（80% CrI，0%至 13%增加）。实施多项枪支限制与随后枪支死亡率变化之间关联的估计结果产生了更大的效应大小。从最宽松的枪支政策集过渡到最严格的枪支政策集，与枪支死亡率估计降低 20%相关（80% CrI，10%至 28%降低），有 0.99 的概率降低任何枪支死亡率。
在这项关于州级枪支政策的比较效果研究中，计算了枪支法律组合的联合效应估计值，表明限制性枪支政策与枪支死亡率的大幅降低相关。尽管政策制定者从了解个别政策的效果中受益，但实施个别政策后枪支死亡率的估计变化往往很小且不确定。
