Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, 722 West 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA
Department of Population Health, New York University, Langone School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
BMJ. 2019 Mar 6;364:l542. doi: 10.1136/bmj.l542.
To determine whether restrictiveness-permissiveness of state gun laws or gun ownership are associated with mass shootings in the US.
Cross sectional time series.
US gun owners from 1998-2015.
An annual rating between 0 (completely restrictive) and 100 (completely permissive) for the gun laws of all 50 states taken from a reference guide for gun owners traveling between states from 1998 to 2015. Gun ownership was estimated annually as the percentage of suicides committed with firearms in each state.
Mass shootings were defined as independent events in which four or more people were killed by a firearm. Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting System from 1998-2015 were used to calculate annual rates of mass shootings in each state. Mass shooting events and rates were further separated into those where the victims were immediate family members or partners (domestic) and those where the victims had other relationships with the perpetrator (non-domestic).
Fully adjusted regression analyses showed that a 10 unit increase in state gun law permissiveness was associated with a significant 11.5% (95% confidence interval 4.2% to 19.3%, P=0.002) higher rate of mass shootings. A 10% increase in state gun ownership was associated with a significant 35.1% (12.7% to 62.7%, P=0.001) higher rate of mass shootings. Partially adjusted regression analyses produced similar results, as did analyses restricted to domestic and non-domestic mass shootings.
States with more permissive gun laws and greater gun ownership had higher rates of mass shootings, and a growing divide appears to be emerging between restrictive and permissive states.
确定州级枪支法律的严格程度或枪支拥有量是否与美国的大规模枪击事件有关。
横断面时间序列。
1998-2015 年美国枪支拥有者。
从 1998 年至 2015 年，枪支拥有者在各州之间旅行的参考指南中，对所有 50 个州的枪支法律进行了每年 0（完全限制）至 100（完全允许）的评分。枪支拥有量每年估计为每个州枪支自杀人数的百分比。
大规模枪击事件被定义为独立事件，其中四人或四人以上被枪支杀害。1998-2015 年期间，联邦调查局的统一犯罪报告系统的数据用于计算各州每年大规模枪击事件的发生率。大规模枪击事件和发生率进一步分为受害者是直系亲属或伴侣（家庭内部）的事件和受害者与犯罪者有其他关系（家庭外部）的事件。
完全调整后的回归分析表明，州级枪支法律宽松度每增加 10 个单位，大规模枪击事件的发生率就会显著增加 11.5%（95%置信区间 4.2%至 19.3%，P=0.002）。州级枪支拥有量增加 10%，大规模枪击事件的发生率就会显著增加 35.1%（12.7%至 62.7%，P=0.001）。部分调整后的回归分析得出了类似的结果，对家庭内部和家庭外部大规模枪击事件的分析也是如此。
枪支法律较为宽松、枪支拥有量较大的州大规模枪击事件发生率更高，限制州和宽松州之间似乎出现了日益扩大的差距。
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