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确定泰国旅游收入的决定因素以及相关的决定因素-决定因素相互作用。

Identifying the determinants of tourism receipts of Thailand and relevant determinant-determinant interactions.

作者信息

Khemthong Suree, Luenam Pramote, Frank Till D, Ingsrisawang Lily

机构信息

School of Management Science, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nonthaburi, Thailand.

Graduate School of Applied Statistics, National Institute of Development Administration, Bangkok, Thailand.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Aug 1;19(8):e0308153. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0308153. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The study examined the determinants that affect tourism receipts in Thailand. To this end, quarterly data from eight main provinces of Thailand from the period 2015-2019 were used and constituted a repeated measures design. Accordingly, a generalized linear mixed model was applied for developing two different random intercept models by treating 1) province, and 2) a combination of province and calendar quarter as cluster-specific effects. It was found that determinants that increased tourism receipts were the number of visitors, the average cost per day, the length of stay of visitors, the presence of low-cost airlines, and a relatively low offence rate. Moreover, an increase in the number of visitors in the fourth quarter produced a higher amount of additional receipts as compared to a similar increase in the first quarter. Specifically, for Thailand attracting high-spending tourists and extending tourist visas for more than 30 days is recommended. Beyond Thailand, uncovering interaction effects as described above may help tourism agencies to focus their limited resources on the determinants that matter.

摘要

该研究考察了影响泰国旅游收入的决定因素。为此,使用了泰国八个主要省份2015 - 2019年期间的季度数据,并构成了重复测量设计。因此,通过将1)省份,以及2)省份和日历季度的组合视为特定聚类效应,应用广义线性混合模型来开发两个不同的随机截距模型。研究发现,增加旅游收入的决定因素包括游客数量、每日平均成本、游客停留时间、低成本航空公司的存在以及相对较低的犯罪率。此外,与第一季度类似的游客数量增加相比,第四季度游客数量的增加产生了更高的额外收入。具体而言,建议泰国吸引高消费游客并将旅游签证延长至30天以上。在泰国以外的地区,发现上述相互作用效应可能有助于旅游机构将其有限的资源集中在重要的决定因素上。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2195/11293683/096a1caa6302/pone.0308153.g001.jpg

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