An elephant in the room? Explaining agenda-setting in antimicrobial resistance policies in 30 European countries.

Antimicrobial resistances (AMR) present a particularly challenging cross-sectoral policy problem, affecting human and animal health as well as the environment. Compared to the actual problem pressure, the public awareness for AMR is comparatively low and the issue has not been high on the political agenda in most. Given the rising problem pressure, we aim to find out as to what degree and under which conditions political parties bring AMR on the political agenda. By means of multilevel logit regressions based on 173 electoral manifestos in 30 European countries from 2015 to 2020, we explore the conditions that explain whether AMR are taken up in manifestos. The empirical findings indicate firstly that AMR are only addressed by political parties in Northern and Western Europe, in no case in Eastern, and only in one case in Southern Europe, though resistant bacteria are more widely spread in the latter. Secondly, Green parties are those who are most likely to address the AMR challenge. Thirdly, vote share is positively associated with AMR agenda-setting, while EU membership is insignificant and the national average on antibiotics consumption is negatively related to AMR agenda-setting. Finally, AMR are surprisingly mainly perceived as a problem of the agricultural policy subsystem despite its cross-sectoral policy character. The study makes theoretical and empirical contributions: regarding theory, the article shows that typical variables that are used for agenda-setting are less explanatory for complex intersectoral policies. This is also accompanied by the empirical contribution: since problem awareness and complexity of policy problems are correlated, AMR are reduced to an agricultural issue and as such, it is taken over by political parties that have expertise on agricultural-environmental topics.