Nichita Denis-Răducu, Dima Mihai, Boboc Loredana, Hâncean Marian-Gabriel
Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania.
Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Bucharest-Măgurele, Romania.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 1;14(1):17782. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67918-6.
Previous correlative and modeling approaches indicate influences of environmental factors on COVID-19 spread through atmospheric conditions' impact on virus survival and transmission or host susceptibility. However, causal connections from environmental factors to the pandemic, mediated by human mobility, received less attention. We use the technique of Convergent Cross Mapping to identify the causal connections, beyond correlation at the country level, between pairs of variables associated with weather conditions, human mobility, and the number of COVID-19 cases for 32 European states. Here, we present data-based evidence that the relatively reduced number of cases registered in Northern Europe is related to the causal impact of precipitation on people's decision to spend more time at home and that the relatively large number of cases observed in Southern Europe is linked to people's choice to spend time outdoors during warm days. We also emphasize the channels of the significant impact of the pandemic on human mobility. The weather-human mobility connections inferred here are relevant not only for COVID-19 spread but also for any other virus transmitted through human interactions. These results may help authorities and public health experts contain possible future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic or limit the threats of similar human-to-human transmitted viruses.
先前的相关研究和建模方法表明，环境因素通过大气条件对病毒存活和传播或宿主易感性的影响，进而对新冠病毒传播产生作用。然而，由人类流动介导的从环境因素到疫情的因果联系却较少受到关注。我们运用收敛交叉映射技术，在国家层面上识别出32个欧洲国家中与天气状况、人类流动以及新冠病例数相关的变量对之间的因果联系，而非仅仅是相关性。在此，我们提供基于数据的证据表明，北欧登记的病例数相对较少与降水对人们在家中停留更长时间的因果影响有关，而南欧观察到的病例数相对较多则与人们在温暖天气选择在户外度过时间有关。我们还强调了疫情对人类流动产生重大影响的途径。这里推断出的天气与人类流动的联系不仅与新冠病毒传播有关，也与任何其他通过人际传播的病毒有关。这些结果可能有助于当局和公共卫生专家控制未来可能出现的新冠疫情浪潮，或限制类似人际传播病毒的威胁。
