School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Sep;367:121990. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121990. Epub 2024 Aug 1.
Dual control policies aim to effectively reduce energy consumption and carbon emission by setting targets for total volume and intensity control. With global climate change becoming increasingly serious. China, as a large energy-consuming and carbon-emitting country, faces a huge challenge to reduce carbon emissions. The transition from the "dual control of energy consumption" to the "dual control of carbon emissions" in China is necessary to optimize energy structures, promote energy conservation, reduce carbon emissions, and reach carbon neutrality. This study utilizes multi-regional input-output models to evaluate the results toward both goals from production-based, consumption-based, and income-based perspectives. The findings indicate that "dual control of carbon emissions" is a more precise approach than "dual control of energy consumption". Some provinces have met the latter goal while still falling short of the former. Provinces having met their production-based energy intensity and carbon emission intensity targets, but having failed their consumption-based and income-based targets, are identified to develop a comprehensive and accurate assessment of these targets. A net outflow of embodied energy and carbon emissions is observed among provinces in less-developed central and southern regions to more-developed eastern and northern regions. Suggestions and policy implications based on these findings include establishing a comprehensive evaluation of energy and carbon intensity, considering both consumption-based and income-based perspectives, as well as facilitating enhanced cooperation among developed and developing provinces.
双重控制政策旨在通过设定总量和强度控制目标，有效降低能源消耗和碳排放。随着全球气候变化日益严重，中国作为一个能源消耗和碳排放大国，面临着巨大的减排压力。中国从“能源消费的双重控制”向“碳排放的双重控制”的转变，对于优化能源结构、促进节能减排、实现碳中和具有重要意义。本研究利用多区域投入产出模型，从生产、消费和收入视角评估了基于这两个目标的结果。研究结果表明，“碳排放的双重控制”比“能源消费的双重控制”更为精确。一些省份已经达到了后者的目标，但仍未达到前者的目标。本研究确定了一些省份，这些省份虽然已经达到了基于生产的能源强度和碳排放强度目标，但在基于消费和收入的目标上却没有达标，需要对这些目标进行全面和准确的评估。欠发达的中部和南部地区向较发达的东部和北部地区呈现出净流出的隐含能源和碳排放。根据这些发现，提出了建立能源和碳强度的综合评估、考虑消费和收入视角以及促进发达和发展中省份之间加强合作等建议和政策启示。
