School of Physical Education, Shanxi University, No. 92, Wucheng Road, Taiyuan 030006, China.
Department of Breast Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
Tumori. 2024 Oct;110(5):348-354. doi: 10.1177/03008916241261166. Epub 2024 Aug 2.
The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019, along with assessing the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as to predict future trends.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in the incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess the independent effects of these elements. Incidence and mortality until 2030 were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach.
During 1990-2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Strong effects of birth cohort and period on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality were observed. In terms of prediction, future non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China will continue to increase, while the mortality rate will decrease; for women, both the rates are projected to rise, but they will remain lower than men.
Currently, the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma burden is high in China, and it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Policymakers need to prioritize addressing the factors contributing to sex differences in disease burden, including variations in environmental exposures and lifestyles among men and women.
本研究旨在分析 1990 年至 2019 年中国非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病和死亡趋势，评估年龄、时期和队列的影响，并预测未来的趋势。
利用 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的数据，我们计算了非霍奇金淋巴瘤发病率和死亡率的年估计百分比变化。采用年龄-时期-队列分析评估这些因素的独立影响。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列方法预测 2030 年之前的发病和死亡情况。
1990-2019 年，中国非霍奇金淋巴瘤的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率显著上升。出生队列和时期对非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病和死亡率有很强的影响。就预测而言，中国未来非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病率和死亡率将继续上升，而死亡率将下降；对于女性，预计这两个比率都会上升，但仍低于男性。
目前，中国非霍奇金淋巴瘤的负担很高，预计未来还会继续增加。政策制定者需要优先解决导致疾病负担性别差异的因素，包括男性和女性之间环境暴露和生活方式的差异。
