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与突尼斯犬狂犬病时空分布相关的因素。

Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia.

机构信息

Centre National de veille zoosanitaire, Tunis, Tunisia.

Regional veterinary services, Kef, Tunisia.

出版信息

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Aug 5;18(8):e0012296. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012296. eCollection 2024 Aug.

Abstract

Despite continuous efforts of veterinary services to control rabies in dogs since 1982, rabies remains a cause of death in Tunisia, with more than five reported human cases in 2022. As little is known on the determinants of transmission of rabies in dogs, better understand which factors contribute to its spatial heterogeneity in Tunisia is critical for developing bespoke mitigation activities. In this context, we developed Bayesian Poisson mixed-effect spatio-temporal model upon all cases of rabid dogs reported in each delegation during the period from 2019 to 2021. The best fitting model highlighted the association between the risk of rabies and the mean average monthly temperature, the density of markets and the density of dogs in delegations. Interestingly, no relationship was found between intensity of vaccination in dogs and the risk of rabies. Our results provided insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of dog rabies transmission and highlighted specific geographic locations where the risk of infection was high despite correction for associated explanatory variables. Such an improved understanding represent key information to design bespoke, cost-efficient, rabies prevention and control strategies to support veterinary services activities and policymaking.

摘要

尽管自 1982 年以来兽医部门一直在努力控制犬类狂犬病,但在突尼斯,狂犬病仍然是导致死亡的原因,2022 年报告了超过五例人类病例。由于对犬类狂犬病传播的决定因素知之甚少,因此更好地了解哪些因素导致其在突尼斯的空间异质性对于制定专门的缓解活动至关重要。在这种情况下,我们针对 2019 年至 2021 年期间每个代表团报告的所有狂犬病犬病例,开发了贝叶斯泊松混合效应时空模型。最佳拟合模型强调了狂犬病风险与平均月平均温度、市场密度和代表团内犬只密度之间的关系。有趣的是,在犬只疫苗接种强度与狂犬病风险之间没有发现关系。我们的研究结果深入了解了犬类狂犬病传播的时空动态,并突出了尽管考虑了相关解释变量,但感染风险仍然很高的特定地理位置。这种更好的理解是设计专门的、具有成本效益的狂犬病预防和控制策略的关键信息,以支持兽医部门的活动和决策制定。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/49d9/11326702/eb5a34fb9955/pntd.0012296.g001.jpg

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