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西班牙城市中不同特征热浪造成的死亡影响的地理模式。

Geographical Patterns in Mortality Impacts Due To Heatwaves of Different Characteristics in Spanish Cities.

作者信息

Paredes-Fortuny Laura, Salvador Coral, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M, Khodayar Samira

机构信息

Mediterranean Center for Environmental Studies (CEAM) Valencia Spain.

Centro de Investigación Mariña Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab) Universidade de Vigo Ourense Spain.

出版信息

Geohealth. 2024 Aug 5;8(8):e2024GH001092. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001092. eCollection 2024 Aug.

DOI:10.1029/2024GH001092
PMID:39104964
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11298710/
Abstract

The impact of heatwaves (HWs) on human health is a topic of growing interest due to the global magnification of these phenomena and their substantial socio-economic impacts. As for other countries of Southern Europe, Spain is a region highly affected by heat and its increase under climate change. This is observed in the mean values and the increasing incidence of extreme weather events and associated mortality. Despite the vast knowledge on this topic, it remains unclear whether specific types and characteristics of HW are particularly harmful to the population and whether this shows a regional interdependency. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between HW characteristics and mortality in 12 Spanish cities. We used separated time series analysis in each city applying a quasi-Poisson regression model and distributed lag linear and non-linear models. Results show an increase in the mortality risk under HW conditions in the cities with a lower HW frequency. However, this increase exhibits remarkable differences across the cities under study not showing any general pattern in the HW characteristics-mortality association. This relationship is shown to be complex and strongly dependent on the local properties of each city pointing out the crucial need to examine and understand on a local scale the HW characteristics and the HW-mortality relationship for an efficient design and implementation of prevention measures.

摘要

由于热浪现象在全球范围内加剧及其巨大的社会经济影响,热浪对人类健康的影响成为一个日益受到关注的话题。与南欧的其他国家一样,西班牙是一个受高温及其在气候变化下加剧影响严重的地区。这在极端天气事件的平均值和发病率上升以及相关死亡率中可见一斑。尽管对这一话题已有大量研究,但尚不清楚热浪的特定类型和特征是否对人群特别有害,以及这是否存在区域相互依存关系。本研究对西班牙12个城市的热浪特征与死亡率之间的关系进行了全面分析。我们在每个城市使用了单独的时间序列分析,应用准泊松回归模型以及分布滞后线性和非线性模型。结果表明,在热浪频率较低的城市,热浪条件下的死亡风险会增加。然而,这种增加在各研究城市之间存在显著差异,在热浪特征与死亡率的关联中未显示出任何一般模式。这种关系被证明是复杂的,并且强烈依赖于每个城市的局部特性,这表明为了有效设计和实施预防措施,在地方层面审视和理解热浪特征以及热浪与死亡率的关系至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/6cca068ef812/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/11e671bd8d6b/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/2532ea17e21d/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/f8e16f83fed2/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/6cca068ef812/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/11e671bd8d6b/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/2532ea17e21d/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/f8e16f83fed2/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9dc8/11298710/6cca068ef812/GH2-8-e2024GH001092-g002.jpg

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