Jones Jacob, Griffin Andrea S, Agbola Frank W, Hayward Matt W
Conservation Science Research Group, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.
Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Feb;39(1):e14314. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14314. Epub 2024 Aug 6.
The rapid decline of global biodiversity has engendered renewed debate about the social, economic, and political factors contributing to it. Specifically, there is little understanding of the role that political ideology within a country (e.g., nationalism, conservatism, socialism) plays in determining biodiversity outcomes. We used negative binomial generalized linear models to investigate the importance of national regime ideology in predicting threatened animal species and protected area establishment compared with other factors that affect biodiversity outcomes, such as gross domestic product, inequality, and democracy. For threatened animals, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested adverse biodiversity outcomes arose from larger gross domestic product (β = 0.120, p < 0.001). However, nationalism (β = 0.371, p < 0.01) and socialism (β = 0.293, p < 0.05) were also significantly associated with increased proportions of threatened species. For protected areas, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested increases in democracy (β = 0.880, p < 0.001) led to a rise in relative protected area estate. Conservative regime ideology was also associated with greater protected area estate, although this did not increase the weight of evidence in support of the best models. These findings highlight the relevance of political ideology for predicting biodiversity outcomes at a national scale and illustrate opportunities to tailor policies and advocacy to promote biodiversity conservation more effectively. By targeting appropriate messaging and political advocacy, conservationists can improve the likelihood that politicians and their nations will participate in positive biodiversity actions.
全球生物多样性的迅速衰退引发了关于导致这一现象的社会、经济和政治因素的新一轮辩论。具体而言，对于一个国家内部的政治意识形态（如民族主义、保守主义、社会主义）在决定生物多样性成果方面所起的作用，人们了解甚少。我们使用负二项广义线性模型，来研究国家政权意识形态相较于其他影响生物多样性成果的因素（如国内生产总值、不平等和民主）在预测受威胁动物物种和保护区设立方面的重要性。对于受威胁动物，赤池权重最高的模型表明，不利的生物多样性成果源于更大的国内生产总值（β = 0.120，p < 0.001）。然而，民族主义（β = 0.371，p < 0.01）和社会主义（β = 0.293，p < 0.05）也与受威胁物种比例的增加显著相关。对于保护区，赤池权重最高的模型表明，民主程度的提高（β = 0.880，p < 0.001）导致相对保护区面积增加。保守政权意识形态也与更大的保护区面积相关，尽管这并没有增加支持最佳模型的证据权重。这些发现凸显了政治意识形态在国家层面预测生物多样性成果方面的相关性，并说明了调整政策和宣传以更有效地促进生物多样性保护的机会。通过针对性地传递适当信息和进行政治宣传，保护主义者可以提高政治家及其国家参与积极生物多样性行动的可能性。
