Department of Biosciences, Durham University, DH1 3LE Durham, United Kingdom;
BirdLife International, CB2 3QZ Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Feb 16;118(7). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2011204118.
Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little consideration of the human context in which these impacts occur, particularly at the global scale. We investigate this in two ways. First, by modeling the climatic niches of terrestrial mammals and birds globally, we show that projected species loss under climate change is greatest in countries with weaker governance and lower Gross Domestic Product, with loss of mammal species projected to be greater in countries with lower CO emissions. Therefore, climate change impacts on species may be disproportionately significant in countries with lower capacity for effective conservation and lower greenhouse gas emissions, raising important questions of international justice. Second, we consider the redistribution of species in the context of political boundaries since the global importance of transboundary conservation under climate change is poorly understood. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found. We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. Our work highlights the importance of sociopolitical context and the utility of a supranational perspective for 21st century nature conservation.
潜在的社会政治因素已成为影响野生动物种群趋势和保护行动效果的重要决定因素。尽管越来越多的研究关注气候变化对自然的影响,但很少有人考虑到这些影响发生的人类背景,尤其是在全球范围内。我们通过两种方式来研究这个问题。首先,通过对全球陆地哺乳动物和鸟类的气候生态位进行建模,我们发现,在治理能力较弱和国内生产总值较低的国家,气候变化导致的物种损失预计最大,而 CO 排放量较低的国家,哺乳动物物种的损失预计更大。因此,在保护能力较低和温室气体排放量较低的国家,气候变化对物种的影响可能会不成比例地显著,这引发了国际正义方面的重要问题。其次,我们考虑了物种在政治边界背景下的重新分布,因为气候变化下跨界保护的全球重要性尚未得到充分理解。在高排放情景下,我们发现,预计 35%的哺乳动物和 29%的鸟类将有超过一半的 2070 年气候生态位位于它们目前未分布的国家。我们在全球范围内绘制了这些跨界范围变化的地图,确定了国际协调可能最有利于保护的边界,以及物理边界障碍(如墙壁和围栏)可能是气候适应的一个被忽视的障碍。我们的研究强调了社会政治背景的重要性和 21 世纪自然保护中超国家视角的实用性。
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