Kerr Nicholas, Krönke Matthias, Wahman Michael
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, US.
Researcher, Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Public Opin Q. 2024 Jul 16;88(SI):608-631. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfae030. eCollection 2024.
How do electoral turnovers shape citizen perceptions of election quality in competitive authoritarian regimes? We argue that electoral outcomes are crucial for determining perceptions of electoral quality. While detailed evaluation of electoral trust is complex in competitive autocracies with institutional uncertainty and polarized electoral environments, turnovers send strong and unequivocal signals about election quality. Previous literature has noted a strong partisan divide in electoral trust in competitive authoritarian regimes, but turnovers can boost trust among both incumbent and opposition supporters. We test this argument in the case of Zambia's 2021 election, a case where a ruling party lost despite electoral manipulation and strong control over the Election Management Body (EMB). Empirically, we leverage the first-ever panel survey carried out during Zambian elections. Comparing trust in elections before and after the election, we find that perceived election quality increased after the 2021 electoral turnover among both losers and winners. We find that trust in elections increased the most among winning opposition supporters. Moreover, despite the outgoing president's attempt to portray the election as fraudulent, losing ruling-party supporters also increased their trust in elections after the turnover. The study has important implications for the literature on democratic consolidation and institutional trust.
在竞争型威权政权中，选举更替如何塑造公民对选举质量的认知？我们认为，选举结果对于决定对选举质量的认知至关重要。虽然在存在制度不确定性和两极分化选举环境的竞争型独裁政权中，对选举信任的详细评估很复杂，但更替会发出关于选举质量的强烈且明确的信号。以往文献指出，在竞争型威权政权中，选举信任存在强烈的党派分歧，但更替可以提高现任者和反对派支持者双方的信任。我们以赞比亚2021年选举为例来检验这一论点，在该案例中，执政党尽管进行了选举操纵并对选举管理机构（EMB）有强大控制，但仍输掉了选举。从实证角度看，我们利用了赞比亚选举期间进行的首次面板调查。比较选举前后对选举的信任，我们发现，2021年选举更替后，无论是失败者还是胜利者，对选举质量的认知都有所提高。我们发现，获胜的反对派支持者中对选举的信任增加最多。此外，尽管即将离任的总统试图将选举描绘为欺诈性的，但失败的执政党支持者在更替后也增加了对选举的信任。该研究对民主巩固和制度信任的文献具有重要意义。
