Zhang Wenmeng, Zou Yangfeng, Zhou Wulue, Li Cheng, Zuo Lijun, Miao Lijuan, Cui Xuefeng
School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
J Sci Food Agric. 2025 Jan 15;105(1):42-53. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.13801. Epub 2024 Aug 7.
Maize, wheat, rice and soybean production are intimately linked to food security. Identifying the key factors affecting crop yields and determining the countries where increased irrigation and nitrogen application most effectively enhance yields are essential steps towards achieving sustainable development goals and ensuring food security. Identifying these areas is crucially dependent on yield gaps. However, the lack of comparability between different regions in current regional-scale yield gap studies stems from varied methodologies. Moreover, global yield gap research, relying on statistical models and regression methods, tends to neglect the crop growth process. In this study, we used a random forest model, based on statistical and meteorological data, to pinpoint the key factors influencing crop yields. Subsequently, using unified yield data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), derived from crop models simulations, we applied the yield gap method to calculate the potential yield increase for four crops across countries, under conditions of full irrigation and nitrogen application.
Our research finds that nitrogen application is the main factor affecting yields globally, while irrigation plays a crucial role in the major producing countries. The countries with high potential for yield increases are located at the border between Africa and Eurasia. The global average yield of the four major crops increased 13.7-29.8% under full irrigation, 2.9-39.1% under full nitrogen application and 29.4-97.8% under both conditions.
This study provides crucial insights into global crop yield changes and their determinants, which are highly important for global sustainable agriculture and food security efforts. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
玉米、小麦、水稻和大豆的生产与粮食安全密切相关。确定影响作物产量的关键因素，并确定增加灌溉和施氮能最有效提高产量的国家，是实现可持续发展目标和确保粮食安全的重要步骤。确定这些地区至关重要地依赖于产量差距。然而，当前区域尺度产量差距研究中不同区域之间缺乏可比性源于方法的差异。此外，依赖统计模型和回归方法的全球产量差距研究往往忽视作物生长过程。在本研究中，我们基于统计和气象数据使用随机森林模型来确定影响作物产量的关键因素。随后，利用跨部门影响模型相互比较项目（ISIMIP）的统一产量数据（该数据源自作物模型模拟），我们应用产量差距方法计算了四个国家的四种作物在充分灌溉和施氮条件下的潜在产量增加量。
我们的研究发现，施氮是全球影响产量的主要因素，而灌溉在主要生产国起着关键作用。产量增加潜力高的国家位于非洲和欧亚大陆的边界。四种主要作物在充分灌溉条件下全球平均产量提高了13.7 - 29.8%，在充分施氮条件下提高了2.9 - 39.1%，在两种条件下均具备时提高了29.4 - 97.8%。
本研究为全球作物产量变化及其决定因素提供了关键见解，这对于全球可持续农业和粮食安全工作极为重要。© 2024化学工业协会。
