Guo Qiang, Mistry Malcolm N, Zhou Xudong, Zhao Gang, Kino Kanon, Wen Bo, Yoshimura Kei, Satoh Yusuke, Cvijanovic Ivana, Kim Yoonhee, Ng Chris Fook Sheng, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M, Armstrong Ben, Urban Aleš, Katsouyanni Klea, Masselot Pierre, Tong Shilu, Sera Francesco, Huber Veronika, Bell Michelle L, Kyselý Jan, Gasparrini Antonio, Hashizume Masahiro, Oki Taikan
Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Jul 25;3(8):pgae290. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae290. eCollection 2024 Aug.
The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (T) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative T-relative humidity correlation (C). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive C, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to T. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with T in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.
不断上升的湿热天气被视为对人类生存能力的严重威胁，但湿热天气如何恰当地纳入热健康警报仍在探索之中。利用最先进的流行病学和气候学数据集，我们研究了全球739个城市中多种热应激指标（HSIs）与每日人类死亡率之间的关联。HSIs检测到的热事件的长期趋势和时间存在显著差异。在气温（T）与相对湿度（C）呈强烈负相关的城市中，气温能很好地预测与热相关的死亡率。然而，在C接近零或呈弱正相关的城市中，考虑湿度的HSIs比气温具有更强的预测能力。此外，在许多城市中，HSIs测量的与热相关的死亡率的幅度和时间可能与气温相关的死亡率有很大差异。我们的研究结果为人类易受湿热影响的特定地区提供了重要见解，并有助于进一步完善热健康警报系统。
