Xiao Zheng, Zhang Hui
Department of Sport Science, College of Education, Zhejiang University, 866 Yuhangtang Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310058, China.
BMC Sports Sci Med Rehabil. 2024 Aug 8;16(1):165. doi: 10.1186/s13102-024-00956-9.
The increase in the number of substitutions allowed in football from three to five has profoundly influenced the game. The impact of the rule change on the FIFA World Cup needs further verification.
A total of 2,151 team substitution opportunities and 2,410 substitutions in 384 matches from six FIFA World Cups (2002-2022) were analyzed to assess its impact. One-way ANOVA was used to assess differences in average substitution times among the six FIFA World Cups. Factors affecting the time of substitutions were explored using Generalized Linear Mixed Models.
In each FIFA World Cup, over 92% of substitutions occurred during half-time and the second half, with a higher proportion in knockout stage matches than group stage matches. Group stage substitutions tended to happen earlier, particularly when teams were losing. As allowed substitutions increased, multiple substitutions in one opportunity rose from 4% to 38%. Of the 2,410 substitutions in the six FIFA World Cups, 21.45% were offensive, 63.65% were neutral and 14.90% were defensive. Winning teams made the highest percentage of defensive substitutions, while drawing or losing teams made the highest percentage of offensive substitutions. Match status significantly affected the time of the first three substitutions, and the presence of extra time significantly affected the time of the fourth substitution.
Analysis of substitutions in FIFA World Cups (2002-2022) reveals: Most substitutions occur during halftime and the second half; Substitutions are earlier in group stages, especially for losing teams; Increased allowed substitutions lead to more multiple-player substitutions; Defensive substitutions are more common when winning, while offensive ones are frequent when drawing or losing; Match status, ranking gap, extra time, game round, and substitution rules significantly influence the time of team substitutions.
足球比赛中允许的换人次数从3次增加到5次，这对比赛产生了深远影响。这一规则变化对国际足联世界杯的影响需要进一步验证。
分析了六届国际足联世界杯（2002年至2022年）384场比赛中的2151次球队换人机会和2410次换人情况，以评估其影响。采用单因素方差分析评估六届国际足联世界杯之间平均换人时间的差异。使用广义线性混合模型探讨影响换人时间的因素。
在每届国际足联世界杯中，超过92%的换人发生在中场休息时和下半场，淘汰赛阶段比赛中的换人比例高于小组赛阶段比赛。小组赛阶段的换人往往发生得更早，尤其是当球队输球时。随着允许换人的次数增加，一次机会中的多次换人从4%上升到38%。在六届国际足联世界杯的2410次换人中，21.45%是进攻性换人，63.65%是中性换人，14.90%是防守性换人。获胜球队的防守性换人比例最高，而平局或输球球队的进攻性换人比例最高。比赛状态显著影响前三次换人的时间，加时赛的存在显著影响第四次换人的时间。
对2002年至2022年国际足联世界杯换人情况的分析表明：大多数换人发生在中场休息时和下半场；小组赛阶段的换人更早，尤其是输球的球队；允许换人的次数增加导致更多多人次换人；获胜时防守性换人更常见，而平局或输球时进攻性换人频繁；比赛状态、排名差距、加时赛、比赛轮次和换人规则显著影响球队换人的时间。
