Lepschy Hannes, Woll Alexander, Wäsche Hagen
Institute of Sports and Sports Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany.
Front Psychol. 2021 Mar 9;12:638690. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.638690. eCollection 2021.
Research on success factors in football focusing on national teams is sparse. The current study examines the success factors during the World Cup 2018 in Russia and the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. A total of 128 matches were analyzed using a generalized order logit approach. Twenty-nine variables were identified from previous research. The results showed that defensive errors ( = 0.0220), goal efficiency ( = 0.0000), duel success ( = 0.0000), tackles success ( = 0.0100), shots from counterattacks ( = 0.0460), clearances ( = 0.0130), and crosses ( = 0.0160) have a significant influence on winning a match during those tournaments. Ball possession, distance, and market value of the teams had no influence on success. Overall, most of the critical success factors and those with the highest impact on winning close games were defensive actions. Moreover, the results suggest that direct play and pressing were more effective than ball possession play. The study contributes to a better understanding of success factors and can help to improve effectiveness of training, match preparation, and coaching.
针对国家队的足球成功因素的研究较为稀少。本研究考察了2018年俄罗斯世界杯和2014年巴西世界杯期间的成功因素。运用广义有序logit方法对总共128场比赛进行了分析。从先前的研究中确定了29个变量。结果显示,防守失误(=0.0220)、进球效率(=0.0000)、对抗成功率(=0.0000)、抢断成功率(=0.0100)、反击射门(=0.0460)、解围(=0.0130)和传中(=0.0160)在那些赛事中对赢得比赛有显著影响。球队的控球率、距离和市值对比赛成功没有影响。总体而言,大多数关键成功因素以及对赢得势均力敌比赛影响最大的因素都是防守动作。此外,结果表明直接进攻和压迫式打法比控球打法更有效。该研究有助于更好地理解成功因素,并有助于提高训练、比赛准备和教练指导的有效性。