School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
School of Management, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Front Public Health. 2024 Jul 26;12:1419109. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1419109. eCollection 2024.
Coronavirus disease 2019 occurred unexpectedly in late December 2019, it was difficult to immediately develop an effective vaccine or propose targeted medical interventions in the early stages of the outbreak. At this point, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential components of the public health response to COVID-19. How to combine different NPIs in the early stages of an outbreak to control the spread of epidemics and ensure that the policy combination does not incur high socio-economic costs became the focus of this study.
We mainly used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to assess the impact of different combinations of NPIs on the effectiveness of control in the COVID-19 pandemic early stage, using open datasets containing case numbers, country populations and policy responses.
We showed that the configuration of high morbidity results includes one, which is the combination of non-strict face covering, social isolation and travel restrictions. The configuration of non-high morbidity results includes three, one is strict mask wearing measures, which alone constitute sufficient conditions for interpreting the results; the second is strict testing and contact tracing, social isolation; the third is strict testing and contact tracing, travel restriction. The results of the robustness test showed that the number, components and consistency of the configurations have not changed after changing the minimum case frequency, which proved that the analysis results are reliable.
In the early stages of the epidemic, the causes of high morbidity are not symmetrical with the causes of non-high morbidity. Strict face covering is the most basic measure required to prevent and control epidemics, and the combination of non-strict face covering and containment is the most important factor leading to poor prevention and control, and the combination of strict containment and proactive pursuit is the way to achieve superior prevention and control, timely and proactive containment strategies have better prevention and control, and should mobilize the public to cooperate.
2019 年 12 月下旬，新冠肺炎疫情突然暴发，在疫情早期，难以立即开发出有效的疫苗或提出有针对性的医学干预措施。此时，非药物干预（NPI）是应对 COVID-19 的公共卫生措施的重要组成部分。如何在疫情早期结合不同的 NPI 来控制疫情的传播，确保政策组合不会带来高昂的社会经济成本，成为了本研究的重点。
我们主要使用模糊集定性比较分析来评估不同 NPI 组合对 COVID-19 大流行早期控制效果的影响，使用包含病例数、国家人口和政策应对的公开数据集。
我们发现高发病率的配置包括一种情况，即非严格的面部遮盖、社会隔离和旅行限制的组合。非高发病率的配置包括三种情况，一种是严格的口罩佩戴措施，单独构成解释结果的充分条件；二是严格的检测和接触者追踪、社会隔离；三是严格的检测和接触者追踪、旅行限制。稳健性测试结果表明，在改变最小病例频率后，配置的数量、组成和一致性没有变化，这证明了分析结果是可靠的。
在疫情早期，高发病率的原因与非高发病率的原因并不对称。严格的面部遮盖是预防和控制疫情最基本的措施，非严格的面部遮盖和遏制措施的结合是导致防控效果不佳的最重要因素，严格的遏制和积极的追踪相结合是实现卓越防控的途径，及时、积极的遏制策略具有更好的防控效果，应调动公众进行合作。
