Agrawal Srishti, Bilam Sumit, Tiwari Geetam, Goel Rahul
Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Centre, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2024 Dec;31(4):579-590. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2024.2389527. Epub 2024 Aug 12.
There is a lack of research that investigates the risk factors of cycling in low- and middle-income countries. We present descriptive epidemiology of crashes that involved at least one fatal cyclist, over a three-year period (2016-2018) in Delhi, India. Next, we used an unmatched case-control approach to identify road design risk factors of cycle fatalities. Cases were road segments with at least one cycle fatality, and controls were those with none. We developed logistic regression models with cases and controls as binary outcomes to estimate the odds ratio of site characteristics. There were 167 crashes involving at least one cyclist fatality over the study period. Fatal cyclists were almost all males. They were less likely to be children or young adults and less likely to be residents of high-income localities, compared to the general population. One in ten crashes included more than one occupant on a cycle and 5% of fatal victims were pillion riders. Seventy percent crashes occurred at midblock, and majority were backend collisions. Regression shows that road width, traffic speed, and volume of heavy vehicles have strong positive effects on the fatality risk of cyclists. These results can inform strategies to design interventions for safety of cyclists.
在低收入和中等收入国家,针对骑行风险因素的研究较为匮乏。我们展示了印度德里在三年期间(2016 - 2018年)涉及至少一名致命骑行者的撞车事故的描述性流行病学情况。接下来,我们采用非匹配病例对照方法来确定导致骑行者死亡的道路设计风险因素。病例为至少发生一起骑行者死亡事故的路段,对照为未发生此类事故的路段。我们以病例和对照作为二元结果建立逻辑回归模型,以估计场地特征的优势比。在研究期间,有167起涉及至少一名骑行者死亡的撞车事故。致命的骑行者几乎全是男性。与普通人群相比,他们不太可能是儿童或年轻人,也不太可能是高收入地区的居民。十分之一的撞车事故中,一辆自行车上有不止一名乘客,5%的致命受害者是后座乘客。70%的撞车事故发生在街区中间,大多数是追尾碰撞。回归分析表明,道路宽度、交通速度和重型车辆数量对骑行者的死亡风险有强烈的正向影响。这些结果可为设计保障骑行者安全的干预策略提供参考。