Zottola Samantha A, Stewart Kamiya, Cloud Violette, Hassett Liz, Desmarais Sarah L
Policy Research Associates, Inc.
Law Hum Behav. 2024 Oct-Dec;48(5-6):398-414. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000562. Epub 2024 Aug 12.
Native Americans are vastly overrepresented in U.S. jails and people in rural communities face unique barriers (e.g., limited public transportation and services) that may impact how well pretrial risk assessments predict outcomes. Yet, these populations are understudied in the literature examining the predictive validity and, more importantly, the potential predictive bias of pretrial risk assessments. We sought to address these gaps.
We had three aims: (a) examine the validity of Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores in predicting pretrial outcomes in a county with a high degree of rurality, (b) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among Native American and White people, and (c) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among men and women.
Our sample comprised 4,570 closed cases involving people released on personal recognizance bonds over a 3.5-year period. About two thirds were Native American and men. The PSA was completed and outcome data were collected as part of routine pretrial practice.
In slightly more than one third of cases, people failed to appear or were rearrested during the pretrial period. In the full sample, PSA scores demonstrated poor validity in predicting failure to appear but fair validity in predicting new arrest. Further analyses revealed predictive bias as a function of both race and sex in the prediction of failure to appear. In contrast, we did not find evidence of bias in the prediction of new criminal arrest, although predictive validity was slightly better for White people and men.
Our findings raise concerns regarding the use of PSA scores to inform pretrial decisions related to risk for failure to appear in rural communities and among Native American people. They also highlight concerns regarding reliance on static factors as well as the need for research on the validity of pretrial risk assessments in these populations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).
美国监狱中美洲原住民的比例严重过高，农村社区的人们面临着独特的障碍（如公共交通和服务有限），这可能会影响审前风险评估对结果的预测效果。然而，在研究审前风险评估的预测有效性，更重要的是潜在预测偏差的文献中，这些人群的研究较少。我们试图填补这些空白。
我们有三个目标：（a）在一个高度农村化的县，检验公共安全评估（PSA）分数在预测审前结果方面的有效性；（b）比较美洲原住民和白人之间的预测有效性并检验预测偏差；（c）比较男性和女性之间的预测有效性并检验预测偏差。
我们的样本包括在3.5年期间涉及以个人具结保证书获释人员的4570个结案案例。约三分之二是美洲原住民和男性。PSA评估已完成，结果数据作为常规审前程序的一部分收集。
略超过三分之一的案例中，人们在审前期间未出庭或再次被捕。在整个样本中，PSA分数在预测未出庭方面有效性较差，但在预测新的逮捕方面有效性尚可。进一步分析显示，在预测未出庭方面存在种族和性别的预测偏差。相比之下，我们没有发现预测新的刑事逮捕存在偏差的证据，尽管白人男性的预测有效性略好。
我们的研究结果引发了对使用PSA分数为农村社区和美洲原住民中与未出庭风险相关审前决策提供信息的担忧。它们还凸显了对依赖静态因素的担忧，以及对这些人群审前风险评估有效性进行研究的必要性。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2025美国心理学会，保留所有权利）
