University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Institute of Legal Medicine, Butenfeld 34, 22529, Hamburg, Germany.
Universitätsklinikum Hamburg-Eppendorf Zentrum für Experimentelle Medizin, Institut für Medizinische Biometrie & Epidemiologie, Christoph-Probst-Weg 1, D-20246, Hamburg, Germany.
Int J Legal Med. 2024 Nov;138(6):2481-2490. doi: 10.1007/s00414-024-03295-z. Epub 2024 Aug 13.
Dental age assessment based on evaluating dental mineralization status is one of the most common methods used in forensic practice. The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of age diagnostics and provide reference data from the Syrian population for forensic application. After several selection steps, a total of 280 orthopantomograms (OPGs) from 140 males and 140 females from the Syrian population divided into 14 age groups between 12 and 25 years were analysed. Based on Demirjian's classification system, the mineralization stages of third molars (18, 28, 38 and 48) as well as lower second molars (37 and 47) were evaluated. Statistical investigations and evaluations were carried out to estimate the marginal probabilities of the subjects having attained ages 14 and 18 by generalized estimating equation models. Our results show that no significant differences can be revealed in the mineralization status with respect to jaw side and sex. In the Syrian population, third molars showing mineralization stage G provide evidence of reaching the age of 14 years with the highest standard of proof ("beyond reasonable doubt"). A completed mineralization in lower second molars (stage H) provides very high marginal probabilities (more than 90%) of the subjects having attained age 14 years. Nevertheless, this cannot exclude an age under 14 years. For the age threshold of 18 years, third molars showing incomplete root development (G dental stage or lower) are associated with a low probability (less than 40%) of the subject having reached 18 years of age. A person's probability of having attained 18 years of age is very high (82- 95%) when the roots of third molars are fully developed (stage H). Nevertheless, third molars at stage H do not conclusively exclude an age under 18 years.
基于评估牙齿矿化状态的牙龄评估是法医学实践中最常用的方法之一。本研究旨在提高年龄诊断的准确性，并为法医应用提供来自叙利亚人群的参考数据。经过多次选择步骤，总共分析了来自叙利亚人群的 140 名男性和 140 名女性的 280 张全景片（OPG），这些人被分为 12 至 25 岁的 14 个年龄组。根据 Demirjian 的分类系统，评估了第三磨牙（18、28、38 和 48）以及下颌第二磨牙（37 和 47）的矿化阶段。通过广义估计方程模型进行了统计调查和评估，以估计受试者达到 14 岁和 18 岁的边缘概率。我们的结果表明，在颌骨侧和性别方面，矿化状态没有明显差异。在叙利亚人群中，第三磨牙显示矿化阶段 G 提供了达到 14 岁年龄的最高证据标准（“毫无疑问”）。下颌第二磨牙完全矿化（阶段 H）提供了受试者达到 14 岁年龄的极高边缘概率（超过 90%）。然而，这并不能排除年龄在 14 岁以下的情况。对于 18 岁的年龄阈值，未完全发育的第三磨牙（G 牙龄阶段或更低）与受试者达到 18 岁的概率较低（低于 40%）相关。当第三磨牙的根完全发育（阶段 H）时，一个人达到 18 岁的概率非常高（82-95%）。然而，第三磨牙在阶段 H 并不能明确排除年龄在 18 岁以下的情况。
