Institute of Legal Medicine, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Via Conca 71, 60126, Ancona, Italy.
Int J Legal Med. 2011 May;125(3):411-6. doi: 10.1007/s00414-010-0541-6. Epub 2011 Jan 11.
The main importance in age estimation lies in the assessment of criminal liability and protection of unaccompanied minor immigrants, when their age is unknown. Under Italian law, persons are not criminally responsible before they reach the age of 14. The age of 18 is important when deciding whether juvenile or adult law must be applied. In the case of unaccompanied minors, it is important to assess age in order to establish special protective measures, and correct age estimation may prevent a person over 18 from benefiting from measures reserved for minors.
Since the Greulich and Pyle method is one of the most frequently used in age estimation, the aim of this study was to assess the reproducibility and accuracy of the method on a large Italian sample of teenagers, to ascertain the applicability of the Atlas at the critical age thresholds of 14 and 18 years.
This retrospective study examined posteroanterior X-ray projections of hand and wrist from 484 Italian-Caucasian young people (125 females, 359 males) between 11 and 19 years old. All radiographic images were taken from trauma patients hospitalized in the Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Ospedali Riuniti of Ancona (Italy) between 2006 and 2007. Two physicians analyzed all radiographic images separately. The blind method was used.
In the case of an estimated age of 14 years old, the true age ranged from 12.2 to 15.9 years (median, 14.3 years, interquartile range, 1.0 years) for males, and 12.6 to 15.7 years (median, 14.2 years, interquartile range, 1.7 years) for females. In the case of an estimated age of 18 years, the true age ranged from 15.6 to 19.7 years (median, 17.7 years, interquartile range, 1.4 years) for males, and from 16.2 to 20.0 years (median, 18.7 years, interquartile range, 1.8 years) for females.
Our study shows that although the GPM is a reproducible and repeatable method, there is a wide margin of error in the estimation of chronological age, mainly in the critical estimated ages of 14 and 18 years old in both males and females.
年龄估测的主要重要性在于评估刑事责任和保护无人陪伴的未成年移民，因为他们的年龄未知。根据意大利法律，未满 14 岁的人不承担刑事责任。18 岁是决定适用少年法还是成年法的重要年龄。在无人陪伴的未成年人的情况下，评估年龄很重要，以便确定特殊保护措施，正确的年龄估测可以防止 18 岁以上的人受益于为未成年人保留的措施。
由于 Greulich 和 Pyle 方法是最常用于年龄估测的方法之一，因此本研究的目的是评估该方法在大量意大利青少年样本中的可重复性和准确性，以确定该方法在 14 岁和 18 岁的关键年龄阈值上的适用性。
这项回顾性研究检查了来自 11 至 19 岁的 484 名意大利白种青少年（125 名女性，359 名男性）的手部和腕部前后 X 射线投影。所有的放射图像均来自 2006 年至 2007 年期间在安科纳的 Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Ospedali Riuniti 的创伤患者。两位医生分别分析了所有的放射图像。使用盲法。
在估计年龄为 14 岁的情况下，男性的真实年龄范围为 12.2 至 15.9 岁（中位数 14.3 岁，四分位距 1.0 岁），女性的真实年龄范围为 12.6 至 15.7 岁（中位数 14.2 岁，四分位距 1.7 岁）。在估计年龄为 18 岁的情况下，男性的真实年龄范围为 15.6 至 19.7 岁（中位数 17.7 岁，四分位距 1.4 岁），女性的真实年龄范围为 16.2 至 20.0 岁（中位数 18.7 岁，四分位距 1.8 岁）。
我们的研究表明，尽管 GPM 是一种可重复的方法，但在估计实际年龄时存在很大的误差范围，主要是在男性和女性的 14 岁和 18 岁的关键估计年龄。
