Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Switzerland.
Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine.
Swiss Med Wkly. 2024 Jul 16;154:3861. doi: 10.57187/s.3861.
General internal medicine is a crucial element in healthcare systems. Understanding how many people are and will be working in this field is important to maintain and improve quality for patients in healthcare systems. This can provide a basis for political decisions.
We conducted a cross-sectional study to analyse the current and future workforce of generalists (general practitioners and internists in hospitals) in Switzerland. The Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine (SSGIM) distributed a survey to all members. Respondents were asked about their current average workload in 2023 and planned workload in 2033. The responses were used to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) for the current and future workforce of generalists and to extrapolate FTE for all active SSGIM members. To model the demand by 2033, we derived different scenarios.
Of all 6,232 active SSGIM members, 2,030 (33%) participated: 46% female, 25% (largest age group) 56-65 years old, 19% still in postgraduate training. The average workload in 2023 was 78% for female and 87% for male generalists; the FTE extrapolated to all active SSGIM members in 2023 was 5,246. By 2033, 1,935 FTEs (36%) will retire, 502 FTEs (10%) will reduce their workload, 116 FTEs (2%) will increase their workload and 2,800 FTEs (53%) will remain in the workforce with the same workload as in 2023. To maintain the same workforce as in 2023, 2,321 new FTEs (44%) will be needed by 2033. To fill this gap of 232 FTE new generalists per year, we modelled different scenarios with assumptions of interest, workload, migration and dropouts.
Within only one decade, 44% of the current workforce of generalists will disappear, mainly due to retirement and decreased workload. To fill this gap, various scenarios need to be incorporated. Politicians are called upon to create the political framework to create attractive training and working conditions for generalists to address the future demand for healthcare services.
内科医学是医疗体系的重要组成部分。了解有多少人在这个领域工作以及未来将有多少人从事这个领域的工作，对于维护和提高医疗体系中患者的质量至关重要。这可以为政治决策提供依据。
我们进行了一项横断面研究，分析了瑞士普通科医生（全科医生和医院内科医生）的现有和未来劳动力。瑞士内科医学学会（SSGIM）向所有成员分发了一份调查。受访者被要求回答他们在 2023 年的当前平均工作量和 2033 年的计划工作量。根据回答结果，我们计算了普通科医生现有和未来劳动力的全职等效人员（FTE），并推断了所有活跃的 SSGIM 成员的 FTE。为了预测 2033 年的需求，我们得出了不同的情景。
在所有 6232 名活跃的 SSGIM 成员中，有 2030 名（33%）参与了调查：46%为女性，25%（最大年龄组）为 56-65 岁，19%仍在研究生培训中。2023 年的平均工作量为女性 78%，男性 87%；推断到 2023 年所有活跃的 SSGIM 成员的 FTE 为 5246。到 2033 年，将有 1935 个 FTE（36%）退休，502 个 FTE（10%）将减少工作量，116 个 FTE（2%）将增加工作量，2800 个 FTE（53%）将以与 2023 年相同的工作量继续工作。为了保持 2023 年的劳动力不变，到 2033 年需要增加 2321 个新的 FTE（44%）。为了弥补这一差距，我们模拟了不同的情景，其中考虑了工作量、移民和流失等假设。
在短短十年内，将有 44%的现有普通科医生劳动力消失，主要原因是退休和工作量减少。为了弥补这一差距，需要采用各种方案。政治家们被呼吁创造政治框架，为普通科医生创造有吸引力的培训和工作条件，以满足未来对医疗服务的需求。
