College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Sep;368:122133. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122133. Epub 2024 Aug 19.
The iron and steel industry (ISI) is a significant source of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter pollution in China. Existing research on regional environmental regulation or ISI emission reduction strategies tends to overlook spillover effects and the enterprise perspective. During the heating season, production limitations in ISI are potential policy measures for achieving structural emission reductions in heavily polluted cities in China's Jing-Jin-Ji and surrounding regions. We adopt a bottom-up modeling approach, incorporating effective production time to describe enterprise behavior and establishing a quantitative trade model based on trade theory. By modeling three types of production restriction policies outlined in policy documents, we evaluate the emission reduction effects of structure-adjustment measures using the example of reduced effective production time for steel-producing enterprises in the air pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The results indicate the following: (1) Reducing the effective production time of ISI enterprises can help decrease domestic production value and total factor productivity in pollution-intensive industries, including but not limited to ISI. It also leads to reduced emissions of various pollutants in the implementation regions. (2) Due to interprovincial trade and input-output linkages, structural reduction measures in certain regions have implications for almost all other provinces' industrial structures. Differences in initial industrial structures, factor endowments, and geographical locations contribute to varying directions and magnitudes of industrial structural changes. Pollution-intensive industries' share tends to increase higher in less developed regions. (3) Our estimated pollution reduction is smaller compared to the literature evaluating clean air policies in similar regions using top-down strategies. This discrepancy arises because we analyze a single policy tool rather than modeling industry-wide emission fluctuations from the top down. Additionally, our modeling approach allows us to examine dynamic changes in comparative advantages. The increase in production scale for certain industries in policy-affected regions partially offsets the decline in pollution emissions. These findings enhance our understanding of structure-adjustment reduction measures' role and highlight their potential advantages and limitations.
钢铁工业（ISI）是中国二氧化硫和颗粒物污染的重要来源。现有的区域环境监管或 ISI 减排策略研究往往忽略了溢出效应和企业视角。在供暖季节，对 ISI 的生产限制是中国京津冀及周边地区重污染城市实现结构性减排的潜在政策措施。我们采用自下而上的建模方法，结合有效生产时间来描述企业行为，并基于贸易理论建立定量贸易模型。通过对政策文件中概述的三种生产限制政策进行建模，我们以减少京津冀地区空气污染传输通道中钢铁生产企业的有效生产时间为例，评估了结构调整措施的减排效果。结果表明：（1）减少 ISI 企业的有效生产时间有助于降低污染密集型产业（包括但不限于 ISI）的国内生产总值和全要素生产率，同时也会减少实施地区各种污染物的排放。（2）由于省际贸易和投入产出联系，某些地区的结构减排措施对几乎所有其他省份的产业结构都有影响。初始产业结构、要素禀赋和地理位置的差异导致产业结构变化的方向和幅度不同。欠发达地区污染密集型产业的份额往往会增加。（3）与使用自上而下策略评估类似地区清洁空气政策的文献相比，我们估计的减排量较小。这种差异是因为我们分析的是单一政策工具，而不是自上而下地模拟整个行业的排放波动。此外，我们的建模方法允许我们检验比较优势的动态变化。受政策影响地区某些行业的生产规模增加部分抵消了污染排放的下降。这些发现增强了我们对结构调整减排措施作用的理解，并突出了它们的潜在优势和局限性。
