Sun Xiaowei, Li Wei, Xie Yulei, Huang Guohe, Dong Changjuan, Yin Jianguang
MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, S-C Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.
J Environ Manage. 2016 Nov 1;182:59-69. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.041. Epub 2016 Jul 21.
A model based on economic structure adjustment and pollutants mitigation was proposed and applied in Urumqi. Best-worst case analysis and scenarios analysis were performed in the model to guarantee the parameters accuracy, and to analyze the effect of changes of emission reduction styles. Results indicated that pollutant-mitigations of electric power industry, iron and steel industry, and traffic relied mainly on technological transformation measures, engineering transformation measures and structure emission reduction measures, respectively; Pollutant-mitigations of cement industry relied mainly on structure emission reduction measures and technological transformation measures; Pollutant-mitigations of thermal industry relied mainly on the four mitigation measures. They also indicated that structure emission reduction was a better measure for pollutants mitigation of Urumqi. Iron and steel industry contributed greatly in SO2, NOx and PM (particulate matters) emission reduction and should be given special attention in pollutants emission reduction. In addition, the scales of iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of SO2 mitigation amounts. The scales of traffic and electric power industry should be reduced with the decrease of NOx mitigation amounts, and the scales of cement industry and iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of PM mitigation amounts. The study can provide references of pollutants mitigation schemes to decision-makers for regional economic and environmental development in the 12th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development of Urumqi.
提出了一种基于经济结构调整和污染物减排的模型，并应用于乌鲁木齐市。在该模型中进行了最佳 - 最差情况分析和情景分析，以确保参数准确性，并分析减排方式变化的影响。结果表明，电力行业、钢铁行业和交通领域的污染物减排分别主要依赖于技术改造措施、工程改造措施和结构减排措施；水泥行业的污染物减排主要依赖于结构减排措施和技术改造措施；热力行业的污染物减排主要依赖于这四种减排措施。结果还表明，结构减排是乌鲁木齐市污染物减排的较好措施。钢铁行业在二氧化硫、氮氧化物和颗粒物减排方面贡献巨大，在污染物减排中应给予特别关注。此外，随着二氧化硫减排量的减少，钢铁行业规模应缩小。随着氮氧化物减排量的减少，交通和电力行业规模应缩小，随着颗粒物减排量的减少，水泥行业和钢铁行业规模应缩小。该研究可为乌鲁木齐市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划中区域经济与环境发展的决策者提供污染物减排方案参考。
