Chen Can, Du Yuxia, Cao Kexin, You Yue, Pi Lucheng, Jiang Daixi, Yang Mengya, Wu Xiaoyue, Chen Mengsha, Zhou Wenkai, Qi Jiaxing, Chen Dingmo, Yan Rui, Zhu Changtai, Yang Shigui
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
Shenzhen Bao'an Chinese Medicine Hospital, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 23;10(15):e35026. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35026. eCollection 2024 Aug 15.
In this article, we provided a comprehensive overview and in-depth analysis of global patterns and temporal trends in years lived with disability (YLDs) for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in individuals aged ≥70. Data on YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to assess the temporal trends in the YLDs rate of MSK disorders. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict the YLDs rate up to the year 2040. In 2019, the global rate of YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were 4819.81 (95 % UI: 3402.91 - 6550.77) per 100,000 persons. The YLDs rate of MSK disorders in female was 1.36 times higher than that in male, and was highest in high SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global YLDs rate showed a slightly downward trend (AAPC = -0.04 %, 95 % CI: -0.06 % to -0.03 %), while it significantly increased in high, low-middle, low SDI regions. Tobacco and high body mass index were the primary risk factors worldwide, while in low SDI regions, occupational risks emerged as the predominant factors. Up to 2040, the global YLDs rate of MSK disorders are expected to increase by 1.78 %, with 36.39 %, 20.66 %, 18.96 % and 5.32 % growth in other MSK disorders, rheumatoid arthritis, neck pain and osteoarthritis. MSK disorders are a significant and continuously growing public health concern among older adults. Tailored interventions should be developed for older adults, taking into account the variations across distributions, trends, and risk factors in terms of sex and SDI levels.
在本文中，我们对70岁及以上人群肌肉骨骼疾病的残疾生存年数（YLDs）的全球模式和时间趋势进行了全面概述和深入分析。70岁及以上人群肌肉骨骼疾病的YLDs数据来自《2019年全球疾病负担》。计算平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）以评估肌肉骨骼疾病YLDs率的时间趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2040年的YLDs率。2019年，70岁及以上人群肌肉骨骼疾病的全球YLDs率为每10万人4819.81（95% UI：3402.91 - 6550.77）。女性肌肉骨骼疾病的YLDs率比男性高1.36倍，在高社会人口指数（SDI）地区最高。1990年至2019年，全球YLDs率呈轻微下降趋势（AAPC = -0.04%，95% CI：-0.06%至-0.03%），而在高、低中、低SDI地区显著增加。烟草和高体重指数是全球主要风险因素，而在低SDI地区，职业风险成为主要因素。到2040年，预计全球肌肉骨骼疾病的YLDs率将增加1.78%，其他肌肉骨骼疾病、类风湿性关节炎、颈部疼痛和骨关节炎将分别增长36.39%、20.66%、18.96%和5.32%。肌肉骨骼疾病是老年人中一个重大且持续增长的公共卫生问题。应针对老年人制定量身定制的干预措施，同时考虑到性别和SDI水平在分布、趋势和风险因素方面的差异。
