Dias Nicholas C, Aarslew Laurits F, Frederiksen Kristian Vrede Skaaning, Lelkes Yphtach, Pradella Lea, Westwood Sean J
Annenberg School of Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Aug 20;3(8):pgae304. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae304. eCollection 2024 Aug.
Many warn that the United States is on the brink of democratic collapse, because partisan animosity, support for partisan violence, and support for undemocratic practices are on the rise. Quelling some fears, scholars have offered interventions that use messages to correct misperceptions about citizens' partisan opponents (the "out-party"). In this article, we provide evidence that the effects of these interventions are not as robust or consistent as hoped. First, we use panel data ( ) to show that perceptions of the out-party are highly variable. This suggests that these perceptions are weakly held and thus unlikely to be a significant cause of hostile attitudes. The oscillation of perceptions over time also suggests that, for many, any effect of corrections would likely be overwhelmed in just 1 month. Second, in a meta-analysis of 67 statistical tests from 12 studies in eight papers, we document that current evidence on the efficacy of corrections is weak. Third and finally, in pre-registered experiments ( ), we find that changing Americans' perceptions of the out-party's demographics, policy attitudes, and support for undemocratic practices has no consistent effect on partisan animosity, support for partisan violence, or support for undemocratic practices. These observations suggest that correcting misperceptions of the out-party is not a panacea for our democratic ills.
许多人警告说,美国正处于民主崩溃的边缘,因为党派敌意、对党派暴力的支持以及对不民主做法的支持正在上升。为了缓解一些担忧,学者们提出了一些干预措施,利用信息来纠正对公民党派对手(“党外”)的误解。在本文中,我们提供的证据表明,这些干预措施的效果并不像预期的那样强劲或一致。首先,我们使用面板数据表明,对“党外”的看法高度可变。这表明这些看法并不坚定,因此不太可能是敌对态度的重要原因。看法随时间的波动还表明,对许多人来说,纠正的任何效果可能在短短1个月内就会被抵消。其次,在对八篇论文中12项研究的67次统计检验进行的元分析中,我们记录到目前关于纠正效果的证据很薄弱。第三也是最后一点,在预先登记的实验中,我们发现改变美国人对“党外”人口统计、政策态度以及对不民主做法的支持,对党派敌意、对党派暴力的支持或对不民主做法的支持没有一致的影响。这些观察结果表明,纠正对“党外”的误解并非解决我们民主弊病的万灵药。