Ter Laak Thomas L, Emke Erik, Dolot Nicole, van Loon Emiel E, van der Kooi Margo M E, van Asten Arian C, de Voogt Pim
KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology (FAME), Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam (UvA), Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Addiction. 2025 Jan;120(1):116-125. doi: 10.1111/add.16649. Epub 2024 Aug 21.
Illicit drug consumption is associated with public health effects and criminal activities. This study aimed to estimate Illicit drug consumption and annual market in the Netherlands from wastewater analysis of drug residues.
Residues of cocaine, amphetamine and 3,4-methylene dioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) were measured between 2015 and 2022 in 30 Dutch wastewater treatment plants serving both rural and urban populations. These wastewater treatment plants covered 20% of the total Dutch population. The Dutch annual retail market was estimated by extrapolating consumption to the total Dutch population, back-calculating consumption volume, correcting for drug purity and street price collected in voluntary checking services, and accounting for the correlation of consumption and urbanity.
The per capita MDMA and cocaine consumption correlated positively with the urbanity of the wastewater treatment plant catchments with r of 31% and 64%, respectively. Amphetamine did not show a significant correlation with urbanity. The three studied drugs were conservatively estimated to cover an average annual market value of 903 (95% prediction interval 829 to 987) million Euro for the studied period. Market estimations from prevalence figures and interceptions of international trade were similar.
Illicit drug consumption in the Netherlands appears to correlate positively with urban (in contrast to rural) areas. Wastewater analysis can be used to estimate the volume and monetary value of illicit drug markets as a proof of concept.
非法药物消费与公共卫生影响及犯罪活动相关。本研究旨在通过对药物残留的废水分析来估算荷兰的非法药物消费量及年度市场规模。
2015年至2022年期间，在为农村和城市人口服务的30家荷兰污水处理厂中测量了可卡因、苯丙胺和3,4-亚甲基二氧基甲基苯丙胺（摇头丸）的残留量。这些污水处理厂覆盖了荷兰总人口的20%。通过将消费量推算至荷兰总人口、反推消费量、根据自愿检查服务中收集的药物纯度和街头价格进行校正以及考虑消费与城市化程度的相关性，来估算荷兰年度零售市场规模。
人均摇头丸和可卡因消费量与污水处理厂集水区的城市化程度呈正相关，相关系数分别为31%和64%。苯丙胺与城市化程度未显示出显著相关性。保守估计，在研究期间，这三种被研究药物的年均市场价值为9.03亿欧元（95%预测区间为8.29亿至9.87亿欧元）。根据流行率数据和国际贸易拦截量进行的市场估计结果相似。
荷兰的非法药物消费似乎与城市（而非农村）地区呈正相关。废水分析可作为一种概念验证，用于估算非法药物市场的规模和货币价值。
